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Historically undecideds are supposed to break for the challenger, but hey, the Red Sox curse was broken and President Bush has miraculously evaded Tecumseh's curse.

"Historically undecideds are supposed to break for the challenger,........."

Actually not true. Just another false notion put out there by the Democrats, hoping to influence voters.

see post #5

In every sort of political race from dogcatcher to U.S. Senator, undecided voters break toward the challenger ever time by about two thirds. This occurs even in races where there is no actual incumbent: The undecideds break toward the party that doesn't currently hold the seat.

The one exception is Presidential races. In these the undecideds break for the incumbent, 2 to 1. As the author points out, if that margin is reversed and Bush gets 1 out of 3, he wins 276 EVs. If Bush gets 38% we get Ohio and a total of 310 EVs. If he gets 2 out of 3, Bush picks up New Hampshire and 314 EVs.

Note that Zogby is saying that the undecideds are leaning 4-3 for Kerry, with a third still completely undecided. Let's assume the rest of the undecideds break down the same way or sit the election out. At that margin, Bush gets 42% of the undecideds, and that (as I mentioned) gives him 310 EVs. If all the remaining undecideds swing to Kerry, then he'll have around 70%, and he needs a 73% swing to carry Wisconsin.

Now, these numbers are fuzzy, they don't count vote fraud, etc., etc. But it looks to me that unless the undecideds swing toward Kerry disastrously, the worst we will have to put up with is a relatively close (6-10 point) EV victory.

Stay confident, stay busy, and we'll win this thing, folks!