FOOD FOR THOUGHT ON UNDECIDEDS AND FIRST-TIME VOTERS (how the undecideds have to break for Bush)

Kerry Spot/NRO ^ | 10/27/04 | jim geraghty

[Cableguy]

Sometimes, two fascinating pieces of information come to the Kerry Spot e-mail box almost simultaneously.

Kerry Spot reader Steve, a fountain of fascinating information, broke down the numbers of how the undecided voters would have to break to give each swing state for Bush or for Kerry.

Using the most recent averages of the Battleground polls found on RealClearPolitics.com I created a table that determines the number of undecided voters from each state that would be required for either Bush or Kerry to win. This is done by assuming that 20% of the overall ranks of the undecided won't vote at all and then arriving at the majority point by reducing that non-voter number as well as the numbers of third-party candidates (Ralph Nader plus an assume 0.5% for other third-party candidates) and dividing by two. The results are as follows:

Florida - Bush 23.78%, Kerry 56.22%
Ohio - Bush 37.87%, Kerry 42.13%
Pennsylvania - Bush 96.76%, Kerry -16.76%
Wisconsin - Bush 27.80%, Kerry 52.20%
Iowa - Bush 2.22%, Kerry 77.78%
Minnesota - Bush 34.55%, Kerry 45.45%
Michigan - Bush 79.62%, Kerry 0.38%
Missouri - Bush -8.96%, Kerry 88.96%
New Mexico - Bush 17.97%, Kerry 62.03%
Nevada - Bush -13.06%, Kerry 93.06%
Colorado - Bush -20.26%, Kerry 100.26%
New Hampshire - Bush 58.46%, Kerry 21.54%
Maine - Bush 110.83%, Kerry -30.83%
West Virginia - Bush -4.44%, Kerry 84.44%
Oregon - Bush 89.02%, Kerry -9.02%
New Jersey - Bush 84.44%, Kerry -4.44%
Arkansas - Bush -20.00%, Kerry 100.00%
Hawaii - Bush 35.91%, Kerry 44.09%

If Bush gets a third of the undecideds to break his way (as Dick Morris and John Zogby insist is the historical norm) then the president wins the following Battleground states and ends up with 276 Electoral Votes: Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia and Arkansas (as of today's polls).

At 35% Bush gains Minnesota and his Electoral Vote bumps up to 286.
At 36% Bush gains Hawaii and is up to 290 EVs.
At 38% Bush gains Ohio and is up to 310 EVs.
At 59% Bush gains New Hampshire and is up to 314 EVs.
At 80% Bush gains Michigan and is up to 331 EVs.
At 85% Bush gains New Jersey and is up to 346 EVs.
At 90% Bush gains Oregon and is up to 353 EVs.
At 97% Bush gains Pennsylvania and is up to 374 EVs.

Anything less than 27% of the undecided vote (as of today's polls) tips the election to John Kerry (by tipping Wisconsin back into the Democratic column).

There's no guarantee, of course, that the undecideds will break uniformly from state-to-state, but I found the trends interesting nonetheless for those who believe the late-deciders will break for Kerry.

I’m sure a lot of people could quibble with an assumption here and there, but that seems like a good back-of-the-envelope calculation. If Kerry’s advantage among the late-deciding voters is greater than the traditional 2:1 challenger advantage, then Teresa can begin thinking about how she wants to decorate the Oval Office. If it’s around 2:1, then it’s probably a close win for Bush. If Bush does better than the traditional 2:1 split, he should win with some breathing room, and/or a mandate.

Then forwarded by Ramesh, a message about the Pace poll of first-time voters.

Among first-time voters, President George W. Bush seems to be gaining ground as the campaign proceeds. He has a statistically insignificant lead over Senator John Kerry (48% favor Bush in a head-to-head race, and 44% favor Kerry). Bush's support in this group has climbed 8 points since the previous Pace Poll/Rock the Vote survey in July (from 40% to 48% now). Meanwhile, Kerry's support has slipped 6 points (from 50% in July to 44% today). Seven percent remain undecided.

Like the old song goes, these are the kinds of things that make you go 'Hmm.'

 

[Ancesthntr]

Well, I guess that'd break quite a streak...which seems to be the in-thing in sports this week, what with Bahhhhhston winning the Series [spit]. All things considered, I'll take Boston winning the Series if Kerry stays on as the liberal Senator from Assachusetts.