Posted on 10/26/2004 10:42:47 AM PDT by Cableguy
Bush | Kerry | |||||||||||
Poll | Bush | GOP | Bush | RNC | Rep | Kerry | Dem | Kerry | DNC | Dem | ||
EV | Margin | Visit | Visit | Ads | Ads | 527s | Visit | Visit | Ads | Ads | 527s | |
Tier I: Heavy advertising, true battleground states | 10 | States | ||||||||||
FL | 27 | 1.0 | 10/23 | 10/26 C | 2,687 | X | 466 | 10/29 | 10/27 E | 3,491 | 1,906 | 1,284 |
PA | 21 | 3.3 | 10/27 | 10/26 Z | 1,700 | X | 336 | 10/25 | 10/28 D | 2,100 | 718 | 1 |
OH | 20 | 0.8 | 10/29 | 10/25 C | 2,115 | X | 881 | 10/28 | 10/26 L | 2,236 | 1,790 | 433 |
MI | 17 | 3.9 | 10/27 | 10/20 C | 592 | X | 0 | 10/25 | 10/26 L | 1,150 | 32 | 0 |
MN | 10 | 0.3 | 10/20 | 10/25 C | 256 | 0 | 58 | 10/27 | 10/28 E | 528 | 223 | 0 |
WI | 10 | 1.8 | 10/26 | 10/22 L | 1,160 | X | 324 | 10/28 | 10/27 L | 1,359 | 676 | 140 |
IA | 7 | 3.5 | 10/25 | 10/22 C | 814 | X | 259 | 10/27 | 10/26 L | 1,165 | 588 | 36 |
NM | 5 | 3.6 | 10/24 | 10/23 C | 605 | X | 221 | 10/26 | 10/22 C | 941 | 267 | 34 |
NV | 5 | 5.8 | 10/14 | 10/14 L | 390 | X | 59 | 10/26 | 10/14 T | 433 | 313 | 48 |
NH | 4 | 2.4 | 10/1 | 10/26 Z | 542 | 0 | 0 | 10/25 | 10/22 A | 274 | 327 | 0 |
Tier II: No/some advertising, conceded or likely Bush/Kerry states | 14 | States | ||||||||||
NJ | 15 | 8.2 | 10/18 | 10/18 L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6/14 | 10/7 E | 0 | 0 | 0 |
WA | 11 | 7.5 | 7/30 C | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8/28 | 10/8 A | 132 | 0 | 0 | |
NC | 15 | 6.3 | 9/17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9/7 | 10/6 E | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
VA | 13 | 4.0 | 8/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7/27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
MO | 11 | 5.3 | 10/9 | 10/21 E | 0 | 0 | 192 | 10/8 | 10/11 E | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TN | 11 | 20.0 | 8/31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
AZ | 10 | 9.0 | 10/13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10/13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
CO | 9 | 4.8 | 10/25 | 10/23 C | 605 | X | 100 | 10/23 | 10/18 L | 910 | 185 | 149 |
LA | 9 | 9.0 | 7/1 C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9/9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
OR | 7 | 4.5 | 10/15 | 10/18 J | 154 | 0 | 0 | 8/13 | 10/13 E | 389 | 0 | 0 |
AR | 6 | 2.0 | 8/3 C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5/13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
WV | 5 | 4.0 | 9/10 | 10/18 C | 350 | X | 0 | 9/6 | 9/29 E | 122 | 207 | 10 |
ME | 4 | 8.5 | 9/23 | 9/29 J | 192 | 0 | 0 | 10/23 L | 276 | 214 | 15 | |
HI | 4 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Notes: | 1. State colors: red = Bush leading in polls, blue = Kerry leading, black = tied | |||||||||||
2. Visit = last vist to state (red=last 4 days, blue = last 8 days, green = future events) | ||||||||||||
3. Number of ads shown during the week (red=more, blue=less, black=same). Ads exclude nationwide cable buys | ||||||||||||
4. Visits (L=Laura, C=Cheney, J=Jenna/Barbara, E=Edwards, T= Teresa, L=Liz Edwards A=Andrew Heinz) | ||||||||||||
(B=Barbara Bush, E=Liz Cheney, D=Liz Dole, C=Chris Heinz, Z=Zell, H=Hillary, D=Dean) | ||||||||||||
5. WV ads are aimed at rural PA, OH voters per Matthew Dowd, Kerry pulled ads in WV | ||||||||||||
6. RNC (2 are independent of Bush campaign) ads not showing up in this report | ||||||||||||
According to Chicago Tribune, RNC running ads in 10 states as shown above for $4.7 million | ||||||||||||
7. Kerry pulled ads in CO, canceled trip to Denver | ||||||||||||
Source: ABC News, RealClearPolitics, CNN/TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG (ads: 10/17-10/23) |
Visits
- Kerry is concentrating on 10 states
- Kerry is visiting NM for 2nd time in 4 days
- Bush hasn't visited NH for a while and MN for nearly a week (RNC isn't airing ads in those 2 states either)
- Bush hasn't visited NV since 10/14 (has it locked?)
- Bush is concentrating on OH this week (at least 3 visits), especially with Schwarzenegger on Friday
For last week's Snapshot, here is the Link
ping
Looks like Dems smell blood in Colorado.
See footnote 7.
Dems are pulling out of Colorado. This was last week. Since then, Kerry has cancelled all of his ads, although DNC ads are still running at a lower level.
I dont get it... where is the RNC money going??
I'm guessing but I think the RNC found a line in the CFR that said if they used "John Kerry and his liberal allies in Congress" that RNC ads could in effect be Bush ads but I'm just guessing.
Bush would be outspent this week except that the Pro-Bush 527's are outspending anti-Bush 527s by $9M.
Interesting that the good 527s are spending more this week. Have Soros and the other scumbags given up, or run out of $$? ;)
Bush: $30 mil
Kerry: $24 mil
Good question... where are the ads from the RNC? The Unions have fired up their ad campaign here in Ohio. Many are airing on WTAM during the Rush Limbaugh show, which to me is them wasting their money. No ads though from the RNC in Ohio. Some good 527 ads from a group called Let Freedom Ring.
I live in Ohio and I am seeing RNC ads. Something about this chart is screwy.
My chart says RNC is airing ads in OH. But I don't know how many aired last week.
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