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To: crushelits
This is not the real October surprise, this is just intellectual doodling on the part of the NYT. First of all, it's too early for the critical hit; there's a whole week for the story to be shot at and sunk. Second, no one is going to look at this story and say "gosh, I must have been wrong about Bush, better learn how to recognize the other guy's name on the ballot".

The real attack comes at the end of week and is directed at Bush's character, a follow-up to the Kitty Kelly and Dan Rather types of attack. All they need is to keep a tiny fraction of lukewarm Bush voters home on election day. It came within a few hundred votes of working for Gore. The polls are roughly parallel to where they were four years ago at this time. Without a clear 6 or 7 point lead at this time, the Bush campaign is in serious trouble. The upcoming dirty tricks, coupled with the usual voter fraud, make a 2 or 3 point Republican lead in the polls meaningless.

19 posted on 10/26/2004 8:22:48 AM PDT by Moosilauke
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To: Moosilauke
Moose,

I think you are right. I've also been wondering if there might be a back door attack through Cheney with some 'new' revelation about Halliburton, that evil empire. All they need is a 1-2% swing or a similar reduction in turnout.

On the other hand, what type of revelation about Kerry would dissuade his base from coming out? Let's see - they are pacifists, yet give him a wink about his war hero status. He is filthy rich because of his use of women, yet he gets a pass from the feminists. They are animal rights activists, yet he kills a goose. The worst thing that could be leaked about him to suppress his base would be???

Turnout is key, of course.

A_R

24 posted on 10/26/2004 8:35:07 AM PDT by arkady_renko
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To: Moosilauke
I'm inclined to agree, this is way too early, and look how quickly it was refuted. No, the Surprise this year will hit late Thursday or on Friday, so that the weekend will mute any refutation on the part of the Republicans.

The rules behind this sort of politicking are such that the ordinary standards of evidence do not apply - a shrill enough accusation will suffice as long as it can last three days. Corrections later on page 39, below the fold, as per usual practice.

And the MSM continues in its death spiral into irrelevance, and they wonder why.

38 posted on 10/26/2004 9:53:11 AM PDT by Billthedrill
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