Posted on 10/25/2004 7:00:12 PM PDT by Lance Romance
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51 minutes ago
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By TERENCE HUNT, AP White House Correspondent
WASHINGTON - An "October surprise" is part of the political folklore of presidential campaigns, and just eight days before the election, the unexpected is indeed happening.
Another troubling issue for Bush was the execution-style slaying of about 50 newly trained Iraqi soldiers, underscoring the chaos that still rages 19 months after the president ordered a U.S.-led invasion. As awful as the massacre was, it would have been much worse for Bush in political terms if the victims had been Americans.
In a tight race, Kerry and Bush are both on guard for outside events large and small that could not have been anticipated. Rehnquist's illness and discussions of his legacy recalled his pivotal vote four years ago in the decision that gave Bush the presidency after a disputed election outcome.
Traditionally, an October surprise is seen as a last-minute trick up the sleeve of the party in power to influence the election's outcome, such as Henry Kissinger saying in 1972 that peace was at hand in Vietnam as his boss, Richard Nixon, sought re-election. In 1980, Ronald Reagan 's campaign worried that President Carter would somehow engineer a last-minute release of American hostages in Iran — but they were not freed until the day Reagan was inaugurated and Carter left Washington.
This year, Democrats have speculated that the White House might spring the capture of Osama bin Laden or another terrorist leader to try to seal Bush's re-election.
But as Monday's news demonstrated, surprise developments can emerge outside of anyone's control and can just as easily work against the incumbent — particularly a development like the grisly, roadside murder of Iraqi soldiers.
"There's no way in which Bush can say, `Look, it was only 50 people, they were only Iraqis,'" said Princeton political scientist Fred Greenstein. "It makes it very hard for him to use his mantra about things are getting better and better, and this is right down to the countdown."
Kerry seized on the news about hundreds of tons of missing explosives in Iraq to try to undercut Bush's claim that he is best qualified to protect Americans and lead the war against terror. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei blamed the loss on a "lack of security."
Kerry said Bush had "miscalculated about how to go to war, miscalculated about the numbers of troops that we would need, miscalculated about sending young Americans to war without the armor they needed, without the Humvees they needed that were armored."
Bush shot back, "My opponent has the wrong strategy for the wrong country at the wrong time."
In the highly charged political atmosphere of the final days, Kerry's camp suggested the administration had leaked news of Rehnquist's hospitalization to divert attention away from the missing-weapons story. White House officials laughed off the idea.
Rehnquist's hospitalization reminded voters that the next president, in all likelihood, will have the opportunity to name one or more Supreme Court justices who will deal with divisive social issues such as abortion, affirmative action, gay rights and religion. Eight of the nine are 65 or older.
There also was the suggestion of a leak of stories about the missing explosives. ElBaradei said the IAEA had been trying to give the U.S.-led multinational force and Iraq's interim government "an opportunity to attempt to recover the explosives before this matter was put into the public domain." But he decided to report the loss to the Security Council once it was reported in the media.
White House communications director Dan Bartlett said the missing weapons story was no last-minute surprise, having been reported earlier this month — although without the graphic details of the new report. Moreover, he said, "The American people are well informed about the issue about Iraq and the fierce battles that are taking place there." He said the deaths of the Iraqi recruits were "dramatic" and "catastrophic" but would have a much greater impact if they had been Americans.
Greenstein said Iraq hangs over the campaign's countdown. "The situation is so loose and fluid and explosive. Who knows what will detonate into the picture totally out of the blue."
Seems the NBC report already had this into the public domain.
My guess is the El Baradei was trying to engineer a CYA for himself and the UN. Now Tereza's old schoolmate Kofi will try to make it look like the USA's fault. Of course, with the help of the NY Times.
The REAL OCTOBER SURPRISE will sink sKerry and the Demonrats, if it ever happens!!!!
The REAL OCTOBER SURPRISE will sink sKerry and the Demonrats, if it ever happens!!!!
Most of the "October Surprises" mentioned in this story just underscore to me how much we desperately need President Bush in office...don't think I'm the only one who has that reaction.
The real October surprise is that the Clintons would be jailed.
This whole business about bad news coming from Iraq is reminiscent of the mindset that would give us a statement like:
"The Germans have broken through at Ardennes. That is why we have to pull out of Europe now."
If Americans are willing to let bad war news defeat us, then the presidential election is the least of our worries.
Maybe I'm just self-deluded, but I don't think Americans are as craven as press pundits claim we are.
Yet they keep insisting just that. Am I right about Americans, or are they right?
I guess we'll know soon enough.
So far Rehnquist's chances of full recovery seem excellent. At this point four years from now he will be younger than Justice Stevens is now. Stevens could be holding on at 84 in hopes of having a Democrat nominate his replacement...so Rehnquist may try to hold on until the next Republican administration if the 'Rats win this one.
WTF is that about? Nice backhanded whatever TF it was AP.
FMCDH(BITS)
You see they are projecting. They think they are elite and smart enough to read "everyman's" mind. But it's the leftist press that's craven and stupid.
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