Dan Mongiardo Narrows Jim Bunning's Lead In KY By 11 Points In One Month

Lexington Herald Leader ^ | October 25, 2004

[RightWingConspirator]

Clayton Williams is a west Texas oilman, who in 1990 should have been an easy winner over the big-mouthed Democrat, Ann Richards. Unfortunately Clayton had a big mouth too and he didn't know when to keep it shut. He had a group of reporters out to his ranch during branding season, and it began raining. Clayton made the comment that the weather was a lot like rape--you can't do anything about it, so you might as well lay back and enjoy it. Of course that made the news big time and all of the hairy-legged feminists and the goody two-shoes Southern Baptist ladies became apoplectic. This fired up Ann Richards in doing her typical Democrat thing--making up stories and telling lies--and Clayton made a really big faux pas when they met for a televised debate. He told Ann Richards that she was a liar and he refused to shake her hand. Now, even though Ann Richards wasn't much of a lady, that was beyond the pale here in Texas, and Clayton never recovered.

[Theodore R.]

It was said in 1961 that Tower, then a confirmed Goldwaterite but much later a mushy moderate who supported "abortion rights," was indeed the "more liberal" of the two senatorial candidates seeking to succeed LBJ.

[PAR35]

You left out his tales of his trips down to Mexico as as student and what he and his buddies did while they were there.

[Theodore R.]

Don't be surprised if Kentuckians retire Bunning unexpectedly. Kentuckians are independent of both political parties in many ways. Twenty years ago they unexpectedly retired popular Democrat Sen. Walter Huddleston.

[Republican Wildcat]

Daniel Mongiardo is no Mitch McConnell.

[Theodore R.]

"Claytie," as his friends call him told Hispanic TX voters in 1990 to support him because he met his wife, Modesta, in a Mexican restaurant. Hispanic still voted heavily for Ann Willis Richards.

My favorite "Claytie" quote: on losing the election, "Friends, I have some good news and some bad news. The bad news is that we lost. The good news is that it is not the end of the world." And Clayton W. Williams, Jr., just faded into the west TX political dust.

[PAR35]

west Texas oilman

No, he was primarily a banker. He may have had the only bank in Midland that survived the bust. Shoot, it may have been the only bank in West Texas that survived.

[Tribune7]

In 1993, then-Gov. Ann Richards appointed ex-Congressman Freddy Krueger. While his middle-of-the-road made him a good choice on paper,

Maybe the middle of Elm Street :-)

[AuH2ORepublican]

"The best possible senario now is that Mongiardo establishes enough credibility to challenge Northup in 2006."

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No, the best scenario is that Bunning wins 54%-45% and does not retire, Fletcher gets reelected in 2007, and Bunning retires right after the 2008 elections, with Northup being named by Fletcher as his replacement. She would then run as the incumbent in 2010 against whichever RAT wishes to run---probably not Mongiardo, who would be a has-been, or more like a never-was. Only problem is that Fletcher would probably prefer for Bunning not to retire early so that Fletcher himself can run for the Senate in 2010.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Poor Bunning is probably senile."

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On what evidence do you base that diagnosis? It seems to me that Democrats and the liberal media were quick to jump on that supposed angle without any facts to back it up, with their one bit of alleged evidence being that Bunning used a teleprompter in a televised debate (oh, yeah, that proves he's senile).

[Torie]

His performance overall suggested it. His dodging a real debate suggests it. The guy is old. I hope I am wrong, and even if right, just do it once more for in memory of Strom.

[JohnnyZ]

Worst case scenario:

Bunning wins by 4 and serves 6 more great conservative years.

Oooooh, scary!

[Republican Wildcat]

If he's going to "retire", which I think is a rumor too many of us are coming up with based on Democrat talking points and propaganda....but anyway, under that scenario he should do so before the 2008 elections so that his replacement and McConnell are running concurrently. That would strengthen the ticket.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"His performance overall suggested it."

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I didn't see the KY debate, but my understanding is that Senator Bunning is no Alan Keyes as a debater. President Bush was repetitive in his first debate with Senator Kerry and missed several opportunities to nail him---if he was 75 instead of 57, I'm sure people would have started the same "senility" rumors they spread about President Reagan after his first debate with Mondale.


"His dodging a real debate suggests it."

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If I was not a good debater and was ahead by 18% in the polls, I wouldn't have had a "real" debate either.

If the Democrats are putting all their eggs in the senility basket, they're going to lose this race by double digits, because all Senator Bunning has to do is appear on TV and let people see that he's not senile, and Mongiardo has nothing left to run on. All of those Democrat millions of dollars would have been for naught.

[Republican Wildcat]

Nonsense. Bunning is fine.

He does, however, hate the media.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"under that scenario he should do so before the 2008 elections so that his replacement and McConnell are running concurrently"

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That's a good point. Bunning can retire right after November of 2007, and Governor Fletcher can name Northup to replace Bunning even if Fletcher loses reelection. But that would set up a special election in Northup's CD to be held early in 2008, which would be bad because (i) the Democrats could run a strong candidate and be favored to take over the House seat, and (ii) since having a special House election in early 2008 may mean that the special Senate election would also have to be held on such date, so McConnell wouldn't be on the ballot. So, assuming that Fletcher gets reelected in 2007, perhaps the best strategy would be for Bunning to retire in February of 2008, after the late-January filing deadline for House and Senate candidates but before the May primary, and Fletcher names Northup to replace Bunning. The Democrats would be stuck with whichever loser would choose to run against Northup for the House in 2008 (after having defeated first-tier candidates over and over again, I don't think she'll get tough competition in 2006 or 2008), while the GOP could hand-pick somoeone good to replace Northup in the ballot. On the Senate side, several RATs would have already announced they were running against McConnell, and they would look foolish switching to run against Northup in the special Senate election to be held in November. Northup might get a good Democrat candidate running against her, but she'd have the advantage.

Now that I think about it, an even better plan is if in May of 2008(after the primary), McConnell announces that he is retiring and Northup is named as his replacement both as a Senator and on the ballot. Northup will face whichever sacrificial lamb would be running against McConnell; the sacrificial lamb could be convinced to step down and let someone else run, but that's easier said than done. Bunning can then retire in July of 2008, and Governor Fletcher can publicly call on former Senator McConnell (out of office for less than two months) to please fill Bunning's office so that Kentucky isn't suddenly without any Senators with seniority. McConnell would "reluctantly" accept, and the new Democrat Senate candidate (selected by the party leaders, I guess, or otherwise at a hastily called primary) would have to run against McConnell. Northup would be elected to a 6-year term, since she would be running for McConnell's full term, and thus would not face reelection until 2014; while McConnell would be elected for the last 2 years of Bunning's term, and can run for a full term in 2010. The question is, would the people of Kentucky allow this to happen or would there be a backlash against the tricky Republicans?

[Republican Wildcat]

Or we could just let Bunning finish his term and McConnell run for re-election to simplify it. How's that? :-)

[fortheDeclaration]

LOL! I was wondering about that name! Freddy Krueger.

[ccmovrwc]

Bunning is not senile; he's just a "good old boy" who tends to shoot off at the mouth too much. And he does his best to avoid the (obviously very liberal) local press. I don't think he'll lose though. Even my husband, who doesn't care for Bunning at all, is going to vote for him just to help keep the Republican majority in the Senate.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Or we could just let Bunning finish his term and McConnell run for re-election to simplify it. How's that? :-)"

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Simpler, yes, but not as Machiavellian. : )

And, of course, it would give Democrats a running start against whichever Republican runs to replace Bunning in 2010 (assuming that he will not run for reelection). But if the Democrats think they are running against McConnell instead of Northup, they'll probably nominate Lois Weinberg or someone like that instead of a top-tier candidate.