Still looking good.
ABC has Kerry up 1
Rasmussen has him up 2 but still at 52 approve
Relax people
People forget that the pollsters can steer the numbers to say whatever they want them to say.
BEGIN TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: Here's Doug in Peoria. Nice to have you. Welcome to the EIB Network, sir.
CALLER: Hi, Rush. Pleasure to speak with you today. How are you?
RUSH: Good. Thank you, sir. Hey, I had a quick comment and a question. I just wanted you to know that all three of my kids were first exposed to you on the way home from the hospital. Went and brought 'em home, put the radio on, put you on each time. So I just wanted to let you know that you were and continue to "play in Peoria." Thank you for that.
RUSH: Thank you, sir. Thank you, sir. I appreciate that. You're a good American.
CALLER: Well, I appreciate that. Quick question on the polling. A lot of polls out there. My question is what polls should we be looking at?
RUSH: All right.
CALLER: Based on the 2000 results, what's the most accurate?
RUSH: All right, all right. Nobody knows. I mean, if you want to go back to 2000, the two polls that called it closest were the Harris poll which called the popular vote exactly and Zogby which was second. But let me tell you, Doug, there's a website out there called Real Clear Politics that seems to have become a favorite of a lot of people in synthesizing all of these polls. Real Clear Politics averages, has a rolling average every day of all the major polls combined, and they dig deep each day with an analysis. Now, according to their rolling average, just in the popular vote right now, I think, the popular vote right now has Bush up somewhere around (3.1 head-to-head; 3.5 with Nader) points.
If you take all the polls, average them out, the current polling data as of today has Bush up (3.1 to 3.5). Now, let me share with you, Doug, some of their update analysis today as it relates to the electoral map. Right now the electoral map, according to state polls and a number of national polls, Bush has 234 electoral votes, based on the polls today. Kerry has 211, and there are 93 tossup electoral votes out there in the battleground states. Now, the Real Clear Politics people describe it this way: "President Bush continues to maintain a structural edge in the Electoral College that has worked to his advantage this entire campaign. However, the states that are producing that advantage have shifted since the summer. In our initial electoral analysis, we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection.
"At the time, we suggested that one of the president's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching some of the Gore states -- Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Mexico or Oregon -- giving the president an alternate option of collecting an Electoral College majority that Senator Kerry really never had. Now, as of today this alternate option, if necessary for President Bush, is starting to look more and more like a very real possibility," meaning the president could win this and still lose Ohio. You saw some reference to this from the president himself over the weekend. He was asked about this and he said, "Don't just look at Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. There are going to be some surprises out there," he thinks, all over the place.
The election is going to be decided in more than just those three states, and the Electoral College analysis of all of these polls by Real Clear Politics seems to give even more weight to that as of today, because "as of today this alternate option, if necessary for President Bush, is starting to look more and are more like a real possibility. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Mexico, are fully in play. Eight days before the election Bush holds leads in the RCP state averages Real Clear Politics state averages in all four of these states. This is seriously complicating Kerry's strateg[er]y in getting to 270 electoral votes. Conventional wisdom for months, including Real Clear Politics, had been that whoever won two of the big three, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, would almost certainly become president.
"Not necessarily the case today, and while it may still be likely that whoever carries two of those three will win the election it's not the-cut-and-dry-proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a lot in Ohio and New Hampshire by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida and New Hampshire by winning three of these four states, three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's one electoral vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to win re-election election while losing Florida. Now, turning conventional wisdom completely on its head, President Bush could even lose all three -- Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida -- and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan, but granted it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan.
"But with a poll in Michigan showing the president ahead by five, and Mason-Dixon calling it a one-point race coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot unlike Pennsylvania and Ohio, it's not totally impossible. In this scenario, Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 electoral votes. Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three-electoral-vote pickup. Now, the Michigan option is a little farfetched, but the other two aren't. The problem for Kerry is that he has no backup plan to not winning in either Florida or Ohio. The problem for President Bush is that Kerry is still very much alive in both of those states. All of Bush's backup electoral scenarios will be irrelevant if he loses Florida and Ohio and Kerry hangs onto Pennsylvania and Michigan."
The thing that's important to look at -- I'm not going to go through the individual states, just take this summary as a practical matter for having done that -- but when you look at these, when you look at the electoral map today according to the combined averages of all these polls at Real Clear Politics, you get a Bush total of 234 and a Kerry total of 211 with a tossup of 93, and the simple math there also tells you that Kerry has a lot longer way to go to get to 270 than Bush does. He's got a lot more ground to cover and at the same time he's got far less room for error to lose certain states, and that's why they say here that the advantage right now is for Bush. But keep in mind all this is still according to polls. This is not one poll. This is Real Clear Politics electoral count, and they have totaled up all the running big national polls, the big state polls, and averaged them out to get their national number of Bush up (3.1 to 3.5) and then they've gone to the state polls to look at the Electoral College plus the national polls as well.
So right now (3.1 to 3.5) for Bush, up in the combined Real Clear Politics poll. That's probably the best we're going to do looking at polls, folks. In fact let's go back to 2000. If you go back to about this time in the year 2000 -- if my memory serves, I'll have to look this up -- but I think Bush was up as we got to the latter part of this week, to the Thursday before the election, the Wednesday or Thursday before the election, Bush was up five. In some polls he was up six. Then the DUI thing hat and it had all weekend to percolate, and that five-point, six-point lead was eroded. Now, a lot of people back in 2000 did not believe all this talk that the election was going to be as close as it was and there are a lot of people this time who don't think it's going to be as close as these polls indicate. Cheney himself said on the Today Show, he predicted today that he and the president would win by a margin of 52-47, which is five points – a pretty bold statement to make.
I've always told you that the campaigns have their own polls that are far more detailed than the polls we see reported predominantly, not because they're any better just by definition, they're more detailed because more money is spent on them, larger samples, far more people polled in far more states. That's one of the largest expenses outside of advertising that a presidential campaign incurs, and if Cheney is out saying this, some people say, "Well, he's trying to affect this outcome." Others are saying, "No, he's pretty confident of it and this is why he's saying it." A lot of people, though, believe it can't possibly be this close. It's like Michael Barone in his piece today that I have in the stack here somewhere. It's published at TownHall.com, I believe, theorizes that there's a lot bubbling underneath the surface that the polls are not picking up, such as decent and normal people's reaction to this over-the-top hatred and rage.
He refers to the Wellstone memorial as being something that totally backfired on Democrats in 2002, and he says that something like that could happen here. What he means is that the entire Democrat campaign is in effect a neverending Wellstone memorial, filled with rage, filled with hatred, filled with the assumption everybody hates Bush; filled with the assumption everybody hates everything Bush says or does, that everybody hates religion, that everybody is scared of God, that everybody is this or that and so they conduct themselves in such a manner as though they believe that. They're not worried that they're going to offend people because they don't think they're going to offend too many people, and so this is causing some to think that there is again this great unwashed, silent majority out there that is going to show up in droves on Election Day and that Bush is going to win huge, that they're purposely being ignored or not found by pollsters or that they are not showing up, that they use cell phones and pollsters are not reaching them -- or that people are lying to pollsters.
And I'm sure the Democrats have the same body of thought within their ranks, that this can't possibly be as close as it is. It has to be a bigger victory than this, that we're not this polarized, not when we're at war, not coming out of 9/11. I mean, the theories abound here, and a lot of people will allow their hearts and their emotions to run away with them and they will be governed and ruled by their desires. They will substitute their desire for what they think is reality, and you have to guard against that. The polls are really the only thing anybody has to give us any kind of an indication, and they are, from poll to poll, like I say. In 2000 Harris and Zogby were pretty close, with Harris right on the money. For example, I'll give you an example: October 27th of 2000, in the CNN-TIME poll Bush was up by six 49-43 over Gore. Then the DUI hit and bammo! We all know what happened. So it's still up for grabs.
I don't know what to tell you other than to share with you this data from Real Clear Politics, but it's like I said last Friday, folks: "This is all going to depend on turnout," and I'm telling you right now that this barrage of news that you're going to get this week from the dominant, partisan, mainstream press is designed to depress turnout, depress Bush turnout and inspire Kerrey turnout. I mean, you've got the New York Times story today. It comes out with this supposed cache of weapons that just went missing yesterday, when nothing could be further from the truth. These weapons have been missing for 19 months. Nobody knows when they went missing. The story doesn't even say. But there's Kerry on the campaign trail today just like clockwork citing this story as another example of "Bush incompetence." Nobody will convince me that there isn't some sort of coordination between the news media and the Kerry campaign, and we know there is because the CBS and the forged documents.
We know there is because Evan Thomas of Newsweek has pledged five-to-15 points for Kerry based on mainstream media support. So when we see Kerry go out and starting hyping the New York Times story the day it comes out, and then AP dutifully reporting what Kerry says about a half hour after his remarks on these missing weapons, it's all designed to depress you. It's all designed to depress your turnout, depress your energy, to make you throw up your hands and go, "Oh, what's it worth? We can't win." That's what they want you thinking. They want you thinking that the mainstream press is still all-powerful, all-dominant, and no matter what inroads we gain, no matter what desires we have, we're going to be cut down.
That's the whole purpose of this week, folks, and I want you to keep this in mind and not let it work. Use this as energy to focus yourselves even more. Use this as sort of like an ignition switch to get you to the polls, not depress you, because that's exactly what all this coordination designed to do -- and even with all this, and I keep reminding you, even with all this, Kerry is behind. He has never led this race. Rasmussen has him up today by two, but when averaged in with all the other polls Bush is still up plus 2.9 or basically three points. So even with Bill Clinton out there and even with aaaall the stops that they're pulling out, Kerry still can't vault himself ahead of Bush, and yet they're running this week all of these stories to make it look like it's over. Kerry has this thing won. It's a slam-dunk. It's just a matter of time -- all designed to depress Bush turnout and more. Don't let it happen.
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: Also, a minor correction. I was looking at the wrong thing on the Real Clear Politics poll. The Electoral College stuff was accurate, but in the national horse race poll, in a three-way race, Bush is up plus 3.1. In a head-to-head race, with Nader not in the poll, it's Bush up 3.5. This is in the combination of all these national polls that are out there, including the Rasmussen poll today that has Kerry up by two. The average of all the polls out there today shows Bush up either 3.1 or 3.5. Now, I'm going to try this before we get to the break. I know that a number of you out there, and I keep touching on this, and I just did. I warned you about not falling for the tricks of the press this week and their constant alliance with Kerry and their attempt to suppress the vote. There's also something else that they're doing that bears mentioning here.
Something else they're not doing, which I want to put in front of you, which will explain to you why some of you are just down in the dumps, if you are. You look at things like Kerry's voting record, which is abysmal. You look at his wife's tax information, which is outrageous. She pays an effective tax rate of 12.8%. She's a multibillionaire. His wife gives to ultra-left-wing causes, insults the first lady. If you look to his near treasonous actions toward the U.S. military when he got home from Vietnam, if you look at his horrible performances in the last two debates, his elitist attitude, his personality. He's a charismatic dud, folks! The guy is a walking cadaver, particularly when you put him even next to Clinton, just six-week out of the hospital. He flip-flops on every issue.
He has no faith, yet he claims to be a man of God. He wants to turn our defense over to the United Nations, to old Europe. If you look at the swift boat vets, on and on and on, what about all this? None of it is reported in the mainstream press. None of it is! If this were reported in the mainstream press one-tenth of the time the Bush National Guard story has been in the mainstream press, John Kerry would be down 30 points and it wouldn't even be a race, and you know it, and I know it, and this is why you sometimes lose faith and think, "Oh, we can't win because they're stacking the deck." Well, it's the deck. It's the way things are, and it's what we have to deal with, and the fact that Bush is still up by an aggregate 3.5 after all this ought to be a reason to enthuse everybody out there, folks, particularly going into the last week.
Don't let the partisan media drive you NUTS. Look at how all this playing out and we knew they were going to manufacture a lead for Kerry. Beyond that and everything else they're pushing, you'll know soon enough that its over.
Still looking good.
Can this be in Breaking News for a while and kept at the top? We got way to many people getting all knicker-twisted over polls. Maybe this would keep them calm...for a while at least.
Just a thought...
Absolutely no poll now matters. Any poll is useless now. There are probably 115-120 million voters of which 112-118 million already have made up there mind and are not going to be influenced. The remaining influencial voters 2-3 million are probably not really undecided...but will write in someone like Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Mickey Mouse or waste their vote on Ralph Nadar etc....
The final results could be anywhere from a 3 point Bush loss to a 8 point Bush win. It all depends on turnout. If any patriotic, freedom-loving, self-reliant, God worshiping American doesn't get out to vote (and vote Bush!) there is something seriously wrong with your character, integrity and patriotism.
It all comes down to the VOTES. Lets make Lurch regret the day he ever decided to launch this campaign, borrow money against Tar ay za's home.
God Bless George W. Bush!
link to kerry spot:
http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp
Reposted from another thread:
Wow. I guess what gets me is that we denounce the MSM as the leftist,lying,partisan branch of organized crime and then we sit around with our panties in a bunch because of the poll information THEY FEED TO US WITH A SILVER SPOON.
Research your votes before you go to the polls, vote your conscience, report fraud.
This country is governed by a government OF THE PEOPLE.
If it SUCKS, it is because WE made it that way.
Judges learned they could become more lenient (bribes) because the people TOLERATED MORE.
There are those who want to be FIRST, and will do anything to get it. In that category comes Democrats, Criminals, Politicians.
The rare man knows that if you want to be first, you must be last.
President Bush knows this.
The TRAITOR to the VIETNAM VETERANS AND THE SOLDIERS WHO SACRIFICED WITH THEIR LIVES does not.