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RealClearPolitics Electoral Count (updated analysis)
Real Clear Politics ^

Posted on 10/25/2004 7:33:50 AM PDT by The G Man

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Interesting. The so called "conventional wisdom" could be ... *GASP* ... wrong? LOL!
1 posted on 10/25/2004 7:33:51 AM PDT by The G Man
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To: The G Man

Kerry has to win EITHER OH or FL, Bush has to win BOTH to win? No bias there.


2 posted on 10/25/2004 7:35:44 AM PDT by RightthinkinAmerican (Is the Republican attack machine an assault weapon?)
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To: The G Man
"In our initial Electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection."
I think everyone is losing it.
3 posted on 10/25/2004 7:36:27 AM PDT by ProudVet77 (Flush John 'Fonda' Kerry)
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To: The G Man

Weekly Reader Poll has Bush at 60 and Kerry at 33 or so.


4 posted on 10/25/2004 7:36:31 AM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (Ignorance, bigotry, envy, and gluttony are a few floor joists in the democratic platform.)
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To: The G Man
47.8
47.0
1.3
Bush +0.8
47.4
46.8
OffBallot
Bush +0.6
45.5
48.7
OffBallot
Kerry +3.2
48.0
44.8
1.0
Bush +3.3
44.7
48.7
1.0
Kerry +4.0
Minnesota | 10/15 - 10/24
46.7
45.7
2.0
Bush +1.0
47.6
45.6
2.0
Bush +2.0
50.0
44.7
OffBallot
Bush +5.3
45.8
46.5
1.0
Kerry +0.7
49.2
43.8
1.0
Bush +5.4
49.0
45.0
1.0
Bush +4.0
48.0
45.3
1.0
Bush +2.7
Oregon | 10/9-10/18
44.9
49.4
1.5
Kerry +4.5
49.2
44.8
1.3
Bush +4.4
42.0
50.5
1.0
Kerry +8.5
48.3
46.3
1.5
Bush +2.0
44.7
43.8
-
Bush +0.9

5 posted on 10/25/2004 7:36:32 AM PDT by The G Man (George W. Bush: "Got wood?")
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To: The G Man

Can't wait for this week to get over!


6 posted on 10/25/2004 7:36:42 AM PDT by KidGlock (I already voted for Bush/Cheney 2004. Did you?)
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To: RightthinkinAmerican

Duh, I guess with all the expected fraud in PA, they figure it to be in the bag. As opposed to Tuhrayzuh, who is always half in the bag.


7 posted on 10/25/2004 7:37:16 AM PDT by RightthinkinAmerican (Is the Republican attack machine an assault weapon?)
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To: The G Man

You are going to hear the same thing in the Bush interview with Hannity. Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico are fully in play and the "Bush Strike Teams" will probably be sent out there.


8 posted on 10/25/2004 7:37:51 AM PDT by truthandlife (http://www.neverforgetneveragain.com -- If you want Bush re-elected pass on this video link!!!!)
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To: The G Man

I also wonder now with the only 2 recent polls available for Hawaii BOTH showing Bush in the lead, why it is not a tossup?


9 posted on 10/25/2004 7:37:58 AM PDT by The G Man (George W. Bush: "Got wood?")
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To: The G Man

Even Zogby shows Bush up by 5 in Ohio.


10 posted on 10/25/2004 7:38:01 AM PDT by RightthinkinAmerican (Is the Republican attack machine an assault weapon?)
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To: Conspiracy Guy

And they've been right every time since Ike's day! I'll go with them. (Not meant as sarcasm, but I like their result!!! And it's almost as "scientific" as all these other crystal-ball gazers.) At least I HOPE they are right!


11 posted on 10/25/2004 7:38:47 AM PDT by cvq3842
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To: The G Man

I think Illinois could prove to be a surprise for Kerry also. He dropped from 55% to 50%. I do not think enought dead people in Chicago will make it to the polls.


12 posted on 10/25/2004 7:38:50 AM PDT by 1smallVoice (Clinton brought us Bush)
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To: The G Man
Where that number is a week from today will be the best tell on how this race will turnout.

Boy, that's really going out on a limb.

13 posted on 10/25/2004 7:39:36 AM PDT by ClintonBeGone (Take the first step in the war on terror - defeat John Kerry)
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To: RightthinkinAmerican
Kerry has to win EITHER OH or FL, Bush has to win BOTH to win? No bias there.

How is there bias? It's simple math my friend.

14 posted on 10/25/2004 7:40:11 AM PDT by ClintonBeGone (Take the first step in the war on terror - defeat John Kerry)
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To: The G Man

Too cool if HI goes for Bush. The wife and I are trying to move there by next August if possible. A Bush win in HI would make me feel better about moving there. Lots of hippies on the Big Island, which will make us feel right at home - Athens County, Ohio is where we live now - Berkeley of the East.


15 posted on 10/25/2004 7:40:15 AM PDT by RightthinkinAmerican (Is the Republican attack machine an assault weapon?)
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To: 1smallVoice
I think Illinois could prove to be a surprise for Kerry also. He dropped from 55% to 50%. I do not think enought dead people in Chicago will make it to the polls.

Hopefully Keyes can break 30%.

16 posted on 10/25/2004 7:41:10 AM PDT by ClintonBeGone (Take the first step in the war on terror - defeat John Kerry)
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To: ClintonBeGone

Only if you figure PA going Kerry as a foregone conclusion. When they said this it was to early to do that, IMO. Now it does look like it's maybe in the bag, barring a huge swing.


17 posted on 10/25/2004 7:41:49 AM PDT by RightthinkinAmerican (Is the Republican attack machine an assault weapon?)
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To: RightthinkinAmerican

It's the other way around. Kerry must win both but Bush would still win if he got WI and IA and lost Ohio.


18 posted on 10/25/2004 7:43:21 AM PDT by RockinRight (Bush's rallies look like World Series games. Kerry's rallies look like Little League games.)
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To: The G Man
Tim Russert creates conventional "wisdom" so it is worth about as much as his muscle mass to fat ratio which is somewhere around .00001% muscle- his tongue for eatin'
19 posted on 10/25/2004 7:44:33 AM PDT by Porterville (NEED SOME WOOD?)
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To: The G Man
If the American people can continue to resist the most powerful propaganda machine in history--the Leftist "Mainstream Newsmedia"--we can accomplish anything.

Americans MUST hold steadfast.

The centre MUST hold. The worst are full of passionate intensity. A British newspaper calls for assassination. The wife of the vice presidential nominee foresees riots if her husband looses. Shots are fired in Republican headquarters. Democrat voter fraud is rampant.

However, the best are NOT lacking in conviction! And this is the world's greatest hope.

The American Heartland--Bush Country--must remain resolute!

President Bush MUST be re-elected.

The fate of the U.S.A. and the fate of the world depend upon it!

20 posted on 10/25/2004 7:45:43 AM PDT by Savage Beast (9/11 was never repeated--thanks to President Bush!)
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