You are correct. Cheney is underpredicting so he can have some fun with his prediction after the election.
53-46 or better, depending on how close it is in states such as New York, California and New Jersey. Also, how the numbers rack up in red states.
On the high side: Bush 55-56. Low end 53. Kerry highest would be 46, possibly as low as 41.
With all this handwringing and worrying, it seems everyone is ignoring how poorly Kerry is doing in Democrat strongholds. Seriously lags behind Gore--even Clinton.