Posted on 10/24/2004 3:23:05 PM PDT by plushaye
His brother's helper: Jeb's 'strong leader' image after storms could help 'W'
Not since Robert F. Kennedy has a president's brother been the political asset that Gov. Jeb Bush can be in the next 10 days.
Sam Houston Johnson and Donald Nixon were mostly kept out of sight by their famous brothers. Billy Carter and Roger Clinton were sometimes amusing novelties but never figured in Democratic Party campaign plans.
But with high approval ratings in the nation's fourth-largest state, Jeb Bush rivals former New York Mayor Rudolph Guiliani and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger as a first-magnitude GOP star.
"It's not being the president's brother that matters, except for making it interesting in a sort of People magazine perspective," said Mac Stipanovich, a veteran Republican adviser and lobbyist. "What makes it important is that you have a popular sitting governor who is on your side. When you go into a state like that, it's enormously helpful."
Out of the eight battleground states where the president and Democrat John Kerry are still thought to be neck and neck, five have Democratic governors. Of the three with GOP leadership, Florida's 27 electoral votes make it the biggest prize Nov. 2.
Jeb Bush's knowledge of Florida politics dates back to the 1980 campaign, when he moved to Miami from Texas to run his father's primary effort. In addition to helping with his father's 1984, 1988 and 1992 national campaigns, he was chairman of the Miami-Dade County GOP before making his own bid for office - a near-miss run for governor - 10 years ago.
"The amazing thing about a big state like Florida is that Gov. Bush, having run three times himself, has a big-picture strategy of the state," said Cory Tilley, a Tallahassee consultant and former Bush staffer who worked in his campaigns for governor. "Having him here is a tremendous asset to his brother."
Bush played a visible role in his brother's 2000 presidential campaign but then recused himself from the state board that certified the outcome. After the 36 days of court fights and aborted recounts that resulted in George W. Bush's winning by 537 votes, angry Democrats swore vengeance. Jeb Bush was easily re-elected in 2002 - with his brother making some campaign appearances at his side.
Storms change campaign
Since 2002, the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign has raised $20.9 million in Florida, with $12.1 million of it reaped from receptions, luncheons, dinners and other events attended by the governor. Along with his parents and other GOP superstars, the governor has signed many of the mass mailings that brought in about $9 million from Floridians.
But late this summer, just as people typically start turning more of their attention to politics, the first of four hurricanes sent the governor out of campaign mode and into emergency mode.
The Bush brothers knew their father was criticized in 1992 for federal agencies' being slow to respond after Hurricane Andrew devastated a large swath of Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. The president and the governor both rushed to areas ravaged by Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.
The governor even skipped the Republican National Convention in New York, staying home to work on hurricane recovery. With support from business associates and political supporters, he also formed a committee to raise money for storm victims.
"His handling of the hurricanes, sticking to that and staying out of politics last summer, was probably one of the smartest tactical things he could have done for the campaign," said Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida political science professor. "I think the storms are why you see all the bus tours and stops in little towns, kind of an 'Our Town' approach to politics."
The hurricanes could be damaging in a different way, however. About 30 percent of the Republican vote is in nine counties hit hard by the storms, compared with only about 20 percent of the registered Democrats. Both parties admit that people worried about their homes and jobs might not be easily motivated to vote.
On the plus side, Jeb Bush boasts a 4.5-percent unemployment rate for September, almost 1 percent below the national rate, and employment growth of 125,500 jobs since September of last year.
A survey two weeks ago showed Bush with an "excellent" or "good" job rating of 61 percent, 12 points higher than the president's standing in Florida. Brad Coker, director of the Mason-Dixon Florida Poll, said, "His stature rose in the hurricanes because he was highly visible, and people saw a good, strong leader in a time of crisis."
Governor now stumping
The governor's office said he has taken only two vacation days in the past month. But Bush has worked after hours for his brother - including a tour this weekend - and has recorded telephone messages, sent e-mail and postal solicitations, and made appearances with congressional and legislative leaders on behalf of the national campaign.
"When the president is here, I'm going to be with him," Bush said. "I'm going to do some radio and phone calls to turn out the vote - just the traditional stuff to help."
Though the governor has recently appeared in TV spots for U.S. Senate candidate Mel Martinez; so far he hasn't done any for his brother.
The governor become noticeably more involved last week when he encouraged the state party and the Bush-Cheney campaign to counter Democratic accusations of "vote suppression."
As the two-week period of early voting began Monday, Congressional Black Caucus members, vice-presidential nominee John Edwards, the Rev. Jesse Jackson and state Democratic Chairman Scott Maddox warned that Florida might be in for a rerun of the 2000 presidential fiasco.
Bush said those concerns were "ginned up" by Kerry supporters as part of a strategy to cast doubt on the outcome of the election if it's close.
By the end of the week, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement announced a statewide investigation of vote fraud, including the mysterious re-registration of many college students as Republicans.
"This is a very different scenario than we had in 2000," said former state GOP Chairman Al Cardenas, a prominent lobbyist close to the governor. "By dedicating himself to the things he had to do, with the hurricanes, he has not been on the stump until very late in the campaign. But we think Floridians will think he did the right thing."
BTTT
Quote:
By the end of the week, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement announced a statewide investigation of vote fraud, including the mysterious re-registration of many college students as Republicans."
Question:
Why does this matter? You are not asked party affiliation when you vote in the Nov 2 election? Its not like its a primary.
It seems most likely a bogus charge, or someone trying to rip off the Rebublican party by claiming they registered X "new republicans when they really didn't.
A tall asset, too! Jeb has a few inches of height over his older brother.
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