Posted on 10/24/2004 9:55:45 AM PDT by Cableguy
Oops, sorry, I had no idea and am wiping it from my files.
Thanks.
Not a problem, we just dont need that going around again. I think it was Newsmax that picked it up as real and it just snowballed out of control from there.
well, if one side has 100 ads, and you have 1 ad playing, don't you think it makes a difference? at minimum RNC should match DNC. RNC has 2x the money DNC has.
Are the ads directly from Kerry or the Dem-pro 527s? They`ve got a LOT more money to spend.
http://www.openairwaves.org/527/search.aspx?act=exp&sec=totalexp&sub=topcom
I get the feeling that an avalanche awaits Kerry on election night. No WAY does Bush win the PV by 3 or more points and yet lose the election. It just will not happen. We can't predict the outcome by looking at each state in isolation. We have to look at the map as a whole.
If this race were a dead heat we would see a sharp divide between the red and blue states, and a dead heat in about 5 to 7 states. Instead, we see a "dead heat" in about 6 to 7 blue states, and 2 red states. I fully expect the national momentum will carry over, and we will see Bush with modest leads in Ohio ad Florida by next weekend.
Kerry has shot his wad in both those states because he knew he needed one of them to win. But in the process he has left many blue states exposed. I just don't see him holding turf in all the blue states and sneaking out an Ohio or Florida win. Bush is in a STRONG position, and he will clobber this clown on November 2.
if you study the table, i break out the ads separately
your central thesis isn't correct in that bush will win PV by 3 points. every national poll has the spread within MOE. 99% of the swing state polls are also within MOE. as my table indicates, this race can break either way.
How do you know this,.. based on what information??
Not likely at FRee Republic. Net ads are kinda like flys you just swat them away, IMHO.
I think Bush is up nationally by a solid margin for a couple of reasons. One, the last Gallup and Fox News Dynamics poll show the race at 7 or 8 points. Two, and more importantly, I don't believe for a minute that Bush can be within close striking distance in PA, Hawaii, Michigan, etc., without being up nationally by at LEAST 3 or 4 points. It just isn't logical to me. Who knows, maybe something freakish will happen. But I won't believe it until I see it.
In one way it's amazing.
Kerry is being forced to spend money in Michigan??? In Minnesota and Wisconsin and Oregon...to me that's fantastic news about the possible outcome of the election.
bush is up in HI because of cable buys. bush is down in PA. i have no idea why bush is up in MI. all the national polls you have mentioned are within MOE. you need to more than double MOE to be safe. gallup fluctuates too much for me to be totally okay with it. besides, it is the state races, not nationwide race that matters, as we saw in 2000.
Could Bush have alot more money already spent on final week ads?.. Therefore outnumbering Kerry in the final week?
i guess when i said bush is up, i meant up from being down by a large margin before. if you look at my table in the first post, i have MI within MOE, although kerry will likely win the state.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.