The campaign should start shouting now: "What last-minute smear are the Democrats planning?"
Posted on 10/22/2004 8:46:14 AM PDT by crushelits
What We Will See in the Final Days of 2004 Election
The trend was all Bush. But in a few national polls like Reuters and AP, Kerry has shown some movement. This is disconcerting to some people "on the outside" whose moods depend on the latest poll numbers. So we spoke to a veteran GOP consultant who has been around the block a few times to see if this is something we should be worried about.
“Probably not,” he said. “Voters are going to take one last look at John Kerry. Then they will swing hard back to President Bush.”
“There is a lot of uncertainty out there. And people do not know who to blame for that uncertainty. But while many voters are willing to change their minds, willing to look at Kerry, I don’t believe they will abandon the president in a time of war.”
So we need not worry about this trend that appears to be favoring Kerry?
“No worries. This represents the natural, organic flow of the campaign.”
Our subject, a veteran of both Reagan campaigns for president, as well as Jack Kemp’s ill-fated presidential campaign, asked to remain nameless, partly because he has some critical words for the presidential re-election effort - specifically not hitting Kerry's liberal record early enough as well as the President's first debate performance, which he feels gave Kerry new life at a time when Bush could have buried him.
“Bush isn’t going to win this. Kerry’s going to lose it,” he said. “All this talk about a secret plan for this and a secret plan for that comes off as desperate to most voters. And that’s because it is desperate. That makes him look too risky. People won’t make a risky choice in a time of uncertainty.”
Our subject also believes in the end, 2004 won’t be as close as the 2000 election. “We know that when voters move, they move in big numbers. It’s a strange phenomenon. But there is a collective decision that gets made that usually favors one candidate over another in a big way.”
But why didn’t that happen in 2000?/
“It did! And Al Gore was the beneficiary. Bush lost a substantial lead in the last four days of the 2000 election and ended up losing the popular vote and barely squeaking out an Electoral College win. But the folks running the Bush re-election campaign are smart enough to have learned their lesson and not let it happen like that again.”
But this big mass movement of voters, wouldn’t it favor the challenger? If people haven’t moved to the incumbent by now, why would they do so in the last week of a campaign?
“Because a presidential campaign is not subject to the traditional rules that govern an incumbent-challenger campaign. Essentially, we’re talking about two incumbents here. All the trappings of incumbency have been equalized between Bush and Kerry … the fundraising advantage, greater access to the media, higher name ID. None of those are factors in this campaign.”
So what’s the bottom line?
“In the next couple of days you will see a trend that shows Kerry taking a small but consistent lead against President Bush. I’m talking one or two points. And then, almost without warning or explanation, you will see the President open up a four- to six-point lead on or around Thursday. And that trend will carry the President through Election Day.”
And all this talk about a GOP October Surprise?
“It could happen. And it could exaggerate this trend I’m talking about. But it’s not necessary for a Bush win.”
The Reuters/Zogby Poll shows a trend to Bush, not Kerry. The AP (Amnesia Press) Poll is an outlier.
sKerry has a plan has a plan has a plan.
The campaign should start shouting now: "What last-minute smear are the Democrats planning?"
We'll see a total Kerry crack-up and trainwreck soon as their internals swing to Bush, Big Time.
a plan? a plan.
and what last minute smears are the msm planning.
Zee plan, zee plan!!
MV
"and what last minute smears are the msm planning."
There are signs that the MSM's support of Kerry is starting to flag. It'll be interesting to see if their willing to get tanked with him or if they'll bail out at the eleventh hour. I think the latter-the MSM's devotion to the leftist cause will yield to the desire to remain economically viable. We'll know on November 3 if the MSM truly possesses a suicide bomber mentality.
Kerry will take a small lead into next week until it suddenly turns around on Thursday?? No explanation? How does this person know?
Perhaps the Repubs have some really big surprise to unleash but I remain skeptical.
I think you may be misrepresenting the given statement. I would venture to guess the guru means that there will be a small change in the trends that look favorable for Kerry at first. The acceleration will shift positive for Kerry. Then the trend will reorient to Pres. Bush. I don't think he meant Sen. Kerry would actually regain the lead. To me, that would be highly improbable.
I never believed for a second that Gore's popularity was all that great. There is no doubt in my mind that votescam gave him the numbers in many states. This election will be no different. I predict, with an honest vote, the tally will be 60-30-10 Bush.
But when was the last time we had an honest tally? My guess would be before Chicago was on the map.
Have we already forgotten about Wapo/ABC? That was a six-point-lead like yesterday wasn't it?
If I'm not mistaken, the same thing happened in '88 with Dukakis--he managed to close the gap a wee bit before 41 crushed him.
Remember!
1992 === Indictment. Stopped Bush Sr momentum.
2000 === DUI. Five point drop in FL poll.
We are exactly ONE week from the upcoming Democratic 'bombshell'.
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