Posted on 10/22/2004 6:14:55 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
WASHINGTON - Sen. John Kerry has not yet locked up his base of swing states that voted Democratic four years ago, a Knight Ridder-MSNBC poll showed Thursday.
.....The detailed look at the political battleground underscored the challenge Kerry faces as he enters the campaign's final days.
He probably has to win all the ``blue'' states -- color-coded on election maps for states that voted Democratic in 2000 -- and pick up at least some electoral votes from ``red'' states carried by Bush four years ago. That is because the blue states were not enough for an Electoral College victory in 2000, and they have lost seven electoral votes since then through post-2000 redistricting to reflect population shifts to the South and Southwest.
If Kerry does not hold all the blue states, he has to win even more red states. That is also a challenge, as a second set of polls of seven red swing states this week showed Bush solidly ahead in one, Nevada, and leading in the rest -- Missouri, West Virginia, Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio, though those six were so close they remained statistical tossups.
Yet Kerry still could win almost all these red and blue battleground states, the KR-MSNBC poll showed. One big factor: At least 6 percent of likely voters remain undecided in each state. If they break primarily Kerry's way, they could tilt almost all these states to him. Some analysts believe any voter still undecided at this point is less likely to vote for Bush because they are more familiar with him as the incumbent and still reluctant to choose him.
(Excerpt) Read more at mercurynews.com ...
Maybe the dem.'s treatment of their base is finally coming full circle. They have been nothing but rental car constituents for years. They have been used, misused, abused, and generally rode hard and put up wet. Prayerfully, they are tired of the mistreatment and are realizing they are more valuable than they realized.
So based upon this article's claim that undecided voters break for the challenger and that there are a lot of undecideds, Kerry could win in a landslide of EV's. Doesn't pass the sniff test to me.
There are a lot of Dems who'll be voting for 43. I wonder if that's why I haven't seen a poll on that done?
after hearing months (years now) of Bush is an incompetent idiot, Bush lied, Bush lost all the debates, Bush wants to starve children and the elderly and take away their health care - those who quietly support our President on security matters are more likely reluctant to SAY PUBLICLY that they support Bush but are still going to vote for him. Saying you support Kerry makes you instantly cool and intelligent in many circles (not mine) and announcing your support for Bush makes you a red-neck simpleton. That crowd is around 30% of the country and will always be there but they intimidate a lot of normal, good folk. Those folk voted for Reagan into the 60+ percentages and will do so again for Bush, who has taken Reagan's mantle.
PA +4.2 +2.5
WI +0.2 -1.2
IA +0.3 -3.5
MN +2.4 +1.3
MI +5.2 +1.3
NM +0.06 -1.5
ME +5.1 +4.5
NJ +15.9 +6.3
I like it!
Maybe they need viagra.
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