October 21
October 22 (watch this space)
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Locked on 10/21/2004 11:59:31 AM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:
Duplicate: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1252343/posts |
Posted on 10/21/2004 11:18:59 AM PDT by Cableguy
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are locked in a tie for the popular vote, according to an Associated Press poll. Voters seem open to change in the White House _ most disapprove of the president's performance at home and in Iraq _ but still harbor doubts about making the switch.
Bush's strength continues to be in a perception by voters that he is the most qualified to protect the country, though his advantage has dwindled in recent weeks. Some 56 percent say the country is on the wrong track.
In the AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and Sen. John Edwards got support from 49 percent of those who said they were likely to vote, and the Republican team of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney got 46 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Oct. 18-20 survey, released Thursday, included 976 likely voters.
A spate of other polls show the race tied or give Bush a slight lead nationwide. The presidency will go to whoever gets a majority of the 538 Electoral College votes, a state-by-state chase that is just as close as national surveys.
Likely voters are divided on many levels:
_ They are just as likely to back Democrats for Congress as Republicans, with a 47-46 split favoring Democrats. That is essentially a tie.
_ Twenty-four percent say they have already voted or will cast ballots before Election Day. Those who voted early were just as likely to back Kerry as Bush.
_ A third of likely voters have been contacted by a candidate, campaign or outside group seeking support. Twenty-three percent said they were urged to back Kerry and 21 percent said they were asked to support Bush, a sign that two massive get-out-the-vote campaigns have had equal success contacting voters.
Less than half, 47 percent, approve of Bush's job performance. A rating below 50 percent spells trouble for any incumbent, and Bush falls below that threshold on the economy, domestic affairs and handling Iraq.
In each case, Bush's approval numbers have held steady since the AP-Ipsos poll taken after the first presidential debate.
That Bush performance, roundly criticized on style and substance, helped lower the president's standing against Kerry from early September, when the incumbent led in the head-to-head matchup and had higher approval scores.
A majority, 51 percent, support the president's handling of foreign policy and the war on terror. By 7 percentage points, they think he would protect the country better than Kerry. That is similar to the AP-Ipsos poll earlier in the month, but down from a 23-point advantage in March.
Voters are evenly split on who would do the best job on Iraq. They find the candidates equally honest and likable, but Bush is viewed as much more decisive.
By an 18-point margin, Kerry is seen as best suited to create jobs for workers
ping
ah, ipsos, a french company that wasn't a political polling firm before this.
I guess the AP needs a dash of sunshine to keep their spirits high.
Too bad...the poll hasn't changed since it was posted an hour ago... :)
This poll is good news. Bear with me here.
The numbers they give don't matter. What matters is where we are in this poll compared to the last one from this polling firm.
I've opined before that any poll, no matter how biased, is useful for gauging trends. Look at past AP/IPSOS polls. The trend, even here, is once again our friend. Keep in mind that there is a bias offset from IPSOS that consistently favors Kerry by say, 5 points. So adjusting for this bias, we see that in the last poll, Bush was up by 1, and this poll he is up by 4.
Zogby provides more proof of the trend hidden in biased polls. His last poll was a "tie". The latest poll has Bush up by 1. Once again, the trend is our friend.
Been there done that!
Desperate to slow the momentum of the Republicans, the AP contiues to demonstrate its mindless loyalty to the left. I say this only because this poll is so out of line with the majority, and the track record of the AP is so partisan.
I hear what you are saying But given the MOE is 3-4 for most of these polls, I don't think you can do a trend analysis just based on 2 AP polls. This is especially important if Ipsos has a fixed party ID based on 2000 like Zogby.
Already posted and debunked.
Hmmm. I guess my search didn't bring it up before. I searched under AP also... My bad.
AP/Ipsos (944 LV)*** 10/4 - 10/6 46% 50% 2% Kerry +4
This is the last AP poll I could find on Real Clear..Kerry has dropped a point!..(I don't believe any of them..but the trends I do watch.)
RCP Average 10/14 - 10/20 48.6% 45.5% 1.4% Bush +3.1
Zogby (1212 LV) 10/18 - 10/20 46% 45% 1% Bush +1
TIPP (792 LV) 10/17 - 10/20 48% 45% 2% Bush +3
Marist (772 LV w/leaners) 10/17 - 10/19 49% 48% 1% Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post* (1248 LV) 10/17 - 10/19 50% 47% 1% Bush +3
FOX News (1000 LV) 10/17 - 10/18 49% 42% 2% Bush +7
Pew Research (1070 LV) 10/15 - 10/19 47% 47% 1% TIE
NBC/WSJ (LV w/leaners) 10/16 - 10/18 48% 48% 1% TIE
Harris (820 LV)** 10/14 - 10/17 49.5% 44.5% 1% Bush +5
CBS News (678 LV) 10/14 - 10/17 47% 45% 2% Bush +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV) 10/14 - 10/16 52% 44% 1% Bush +8
Time (865 LV w/leaners) 10/14 - 10/15 48% 47% 3% Bush +1
Newsweek (880 LV) 10/14 - 10/15 50% 44% 1% Bush +6
Either AP is an outlier or most of the rest are.
Duplicate. I searched, but I guess I wasn't careful. Please delete at your leisure.
"One of these, is not like the others ... "
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