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To: Tennessean4Bush

No. The thread title said "Bush 54-Kerry 43" for the ABC-WP poll, which is currently 51/46. A shift like that is impossible through either a bad sample falling off or a good sample coming on.

And you can draw a distinction, because if the bad sample were there we'd have noticed it three days ago when it first made a splash. This poll has been hovering at close numbers in the high 40s for at least a week or more, only starting to diverge the last couple of days. For Bush to go up to 54/43 we'd need to have a sample showing 60% Bush/37% Kerry today. That's why I suspect today's poll rumor was just a rumor, and that's why our host pulled the thread.

Today's poll will probably continue to show Bush with a nice lead, perhaps with a small improvement.


98 posted on 10/20/2004 12:43:29 PM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: HostileTerritory

Oh. That is 6 points. For some reason I thought we were talking 3 points. You are right, 6 points would definitely have to be a funky sample. My apologies.


99 posted on 10/20/2004 1:26:49 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds, a pessimist fears this is true.)
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