To: billva
His final poll was far more accurate than his polls in the final month which consistently showed Gore ahead. Then his final poll was very accurate.
And I'm sure his final poll was more accurate than the one taken before Gore announced his run for president. Is it not apparent to you that as you draw closer to the election, voters perceptions change up until the last day. Come on - add a second dimention to your thought process.
42 posted on
10/20/2004 5:32:18 AM PDT by
ClintonBeGone
(Take the first step in the war on terror - defeat John Kerry)
To: ClintonBeGone
We have to remember a few things here:
1. Zogby can't predict know turnout. That is why he was off in 2002. He didn't accurately predict the intensity of GOP voters. That is why we don't need to wring our hands. Just get out and work,work, work! The name of the game this time, like most, is TURNOUT!
2. We should not get too down at a negative poll. But we should not get to giddy over a positive one.
3. As Rush tells us, the dirty little secret of this election is that Kerry has NEVER been ahead in this election. I know a couple of random polls showed him in the past a point or so up or several months ago. But the RCP average is telling. He has not been ahead, even when he was on a big time role.
So we should not be too done by this. Just 13 days to VICTORY!
66 posted on
10/20/2004 5:45:59 AM PDT by
gbscott1954
(Zogby poll)
To: ClintonBeGone
National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
|
Final National Presidential Poll Results, 1936-2000 National Council on Public Polls - Error Measure
2000-Preliminary
|
Gore |
Bush |
Nader |
Un- decided |
Other |
Gore- Bush |
Margin Error
Poll - Elect |
Candidate
Error |
| Election Result |
48% |
48% |
3% |
|
1% |
0% |
|
|
| Zogby |
48% |
46% |
5% |
0% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
1.0% |
| CBS |
45% |
44% |
4% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
0.5% |
| Harris (Phone) |
47% |
47% |
5% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0.0% |
| Gallup/CNN/USA Today |
46% |
48% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
| Pew Research |
47% |
49% |
4% |
0% |
0% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
| IBD/CSM/Tipp |
46% |
48% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
| ICR/Politics Now |
44% |
46% |
7% |
1% |
2% |
-2% |
2% |
1.0% |
| NBC/WSJ |
44% |
47% |
3% |
4% |
2% |
-3% |
3% |
1.5% |
| ABC/WashPost |
45% |
48% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
-3% |
3% |
1.5% |
| Battleground |
45% |
50% |
4% |
0% |
1% |
-5% |
5% |
2.5% |
| |
|
|
|
|
Avg. Error |
2.2% |
1.1% |
| Alternative Methods |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Harris Interactive |
47% |
47% |
4% |
0% |
2% |
0% |
0% |
0.0% |
| Rasmussen |
49% |
40% |
4% |
|
9% |
9% |
4.5% |
|
|
THIRD PARTY ERROR |
|
| ---------------------Allocate Undecided*----------------------- |
| Gore |
Bush |
Nader |
Other |
Nader Error |
|
| 48% |
46% |
5.0% |
1% |
2% |
100% |
| 47% |
46% |
4.0% |
2% |
1% |
100% |
| 47% |
47% |
5.0% |
1% |
2% |
100% |
| 46% |
48% |
4.0% |
2% |
1% |
100% |
| 47% |
49% |
4.0% |
0% |
1% |
100% |
| 46% |
48% |
4.0% |
2% |
1% |
100% |
| 44% |
46% |
7.0% |
2% |
4% |
100% |
| 46% |
49% |
3.0% |
2% |
0% |
100% |
| 46% |
49% |
3.0% |
1% |
0% |
100% |
| 45% |
50% |
4.0% |
1% |
1% |
100% |
| |
|
Avg. Nader Error |
1.3% |
|
| 47% |
47% |
4.0% |
2% |
1% |
100% |
1996
|
Clinton |
Dole |
Perot |
Un- decided |
Other |
Clinton- Dole |
Margin Error
Poll - Elect |
Candidate
Error |
| Election Result |
49.0% |
41% |
8% |
|
2% |
8% |
|
|
| CBS/NYT |
53% |
35% |
9% |
3% |
0% |
18% |
10% |
5.0% |
| ABC News |
51% |
39% |
7% |
3% |
0% |
12% |
4% |
2.0% |
| NBC/WSJ |
49% |
37% |
9.0% |
5% |
0% |
12% |
4% |
2.0% |
| Gallup/CNN/USA Today |
52% |
41% |
7% |
0% |
0% |
11% |
3% |
1.5% |
| ICR/Politics Now |
51% |
38% |
11% |
0% |
0% |
13% |
5% |
2.5% |
| Hotline/Battleground |
45% |
36% |
8% |
11% |
0% |
9% |
1% |
0.5% |
| Harris |
51% |
39% |
9% |
0% |
1% |
12% |
4% |
2.0% |
| Zogby/Reuters |
49% |
41% |
8% |
0% |
2% |
8% |
0% |
0.0% |
| PSR/PewCenter |
52% |
38% |
9% |
0% |
1% |
14% |
6% |
3.0% |
| |
|
|
|
Avg. Total Error |
4.1% |
2.1% |
1996 was the year first year Zogby appeared in Presidential polls and called it exactly right. In 2000 a couple of polls were more accurate. In 2002 Zogby was way off in some state polls.
|
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