[NittanyLion]

So it sounds as though it hinges largely on whether traditional Democrat supporters who did not turn out in 2000 for Gore decide to vote for Kerry in this election. It appears that Fox, Wash. Post, et al are basing their estimates on the assumption that these folks will not vote this year; Zogby and perhaps Rasmussen is doing the opposite. Harris is hedging their bet (fair enough).

The good news appears to be that, even if all these folks turn out, the race is a virtual tie. If some or few turn out, Bush wins the election.

I like those odds...even the worst-case scenario gives us an even chance of winning this election.

[unspun]

I like those odds...even the worst-case scenario gives us an even chance of winning this election.

Yes. It is typical for theorists to overplay their favorite theories. God bless us, that is also slightly in our favor. I've heard very hearsay, that Rasmussen somehow bases their adjustments "on 2000."

There is a Marriage Amendment on the ballot in Ohio, too, thank God. Also, elsewhere. Also, frankly, it will be reinforcing for women swing-voters to hear what Fox said last night, the women vote has broken slightly for the President.

We are more comfortable than the side on Jane F. Kohn-Kerry's side.