[unspun]

From what glimpses we can see of how these pollsters make their samples and where their presuppositions are, the poll numbers going up evenly for Bush and Kerry in the Zogby poll is quite a good sign. Splitting the undecideds evenly should bring that 2%+ victory that Bush may need, in the popular vote, in order to assure Florida a/o Ohio, plus another swing state or three.

[NittanyLion]

Splitting the undecideds evenly should bring that 2%+ victory that Bush may need, in the popular vote, in order to assure Florida a/o Ohio, plus another swing state or three.

Yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic on Bush's chances. Even the "worst" polls have him tied with Kerry, while most have him ahead. Florida and Ohio look good as well, and in the end that's likely all that matters.

I've read that generally undecideds break to the incumbent in a Presidential election, which should also help Bush (although it's somewhat counterintuitive, I think). Hopefully that pattern holds true in this election.