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To: Torie
Year Race 1 Month Out Next To Last Poll Result Verdict
1936 Incumbent FDR vs. Landon FDR 51, Landon 44 FDR 54, Landon 43 FDR 61, Landon 37 Broke towards incumbent.
1940 Incumbent FDR vs. Willkie FDR 51, Willkie 42 FDR 51, Willkie 42 FDR 55, Willkie 45 Broke evenly.
1944 Incumbent FDR vs. Dewey FDR 47, Dewey 45 FDR 47, Dewey 45 FDR 53, Dewey 46 Broke towards incumbent.
1948 Incumbent Truman vs. Dewey Dewey 46, Truman 40 Dewey 50, Truman 45 Truman 50, Dewey 45 Broke towards the incumbent.
1952 No incumbents. Democrats the incumbent party. Ike vs. Stevenson Ike 51, Stevenson 38 Ike 48, Stevenson 39 Ike 55, Stevenson 44 Broke evenly.
1956 Incumbent Ike vs. Stevenson Ike 51, Stevenson 41 Ike 51, Stevenson 41 Ike 57, Stevenson 42 Broke towards incumbent.
1960 No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Nixon vs. Kennedy Kennedy 49, Nixon 45 Kennedy 49, Nixon 45 Kennedy 50, Nixon 50 Broke for incumbent VP.
1964 Incumbent LBJ vs. Goldwater LBJ 64, Goldwater 29 LBJ 64, Goldwater 29 LBJ 61, Goldwater 38 Broke towards challenger.
1968 No incumbents. Democrats the incumbent party. Humphrey vs. Nixon Nixon 43, Humphrey 31 Nixon 44, Humphrey 36 Nixon 43, Humphrey 43 Broke towards incumbent party.
1972 Incumbent Nixon vs. McGovern Nixon 60, McGovern 34 Nixon 59, McGovern 36 Nixon 61, McGovern 38 Broke evenly.
1976 Incumbent Ford vs. Carter Carter 47, Ford 41 Carter 48, Ford 44 Carter 50, Ford 48 Slight break towards incumbent.
1980 Incumbent Carter vs. Reagan Carter 47, Reagan 39 Carter 47, Reagan 39 Reagan 51, Carter 41 Broke strongly towards challenger. So did some of the decideds.
1984 Incumbent Reagan vs. Mondale Reagan 58, Mondale 38 Reagan 56, Mondale 39 Reagan 59, Mondale 41 Broke evenly.
1988 No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Bush vs. Dukakis Bush 49, Dukakis 43 Bush 53, Dukakis 39 Bush 53, Dukakis 46 Broke evenly from a month out. Broke slightly towards challenger from the 2nd to last poll.
1992 Incumbent Bush vs. Clinton Clinton 47, Bush 29 Clinton 43, Bush 36 Clinton 43, Bush 38 Broke towards incumbent.
1996 Incumbent Clinton vs. Dole Clinton 48, Dole 39 Clinton 52, Dole 41 Clinton 49, Dole 41 Broke evenly.
2000 No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Gore vs. Bush Bush 48, Gore 43 Bush 47, Gore 45 Gore 48, Bush 48 Broke towards incumbent VP.

With only three exceptions, the incumbent party's candidate did at least as well as the challenger with the late breaking vote, and usually did a lot better. The three exceptions? Barry Goldwater and Mike Dukakis each made small gains while remaining considerably behind in an impending crushing defeat. Ronald Reagan proved to be the exception to every rule, winning not only the undecideds but also taking away considerable support from Jimmy Carter during the last weeks of the 1980 election.

55 posted on 10/19/2004 8:12:04 PM PDT by ambrose (http://www.swiftvets.com)
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To: ambrose; All

Interesting list. Voters like stability. It tends to serve incumbents well.

Anyway, I think what Luntz is saying in not so coded words, is that Bush needs 3% lead to overcome fraud. Sounds about right.


62 posted on 10/19/2004 8:18:38 PM PDT by Soul Seeker
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To: ambrose

Fascinating chart.

Thanks for doing the work on that. What poll did you use for the end?


68 posted on 10/19/2004 8:22:26 PM PDT by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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