| Year | Race | 1 Month Out | Next To Last Poll | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1936 | Incumbent FDR vs. Landon | FDR 51, Landon 44 | FDR 54, Landon 43 | FDR 61, Landon 37 | Broke towards incumbent. |
| 1940 | Incumbent FDR vs. Willkie | FDR 51, Willkie 42 | FDR 51, Willkie 42 | FDR 55, Willkie 45 | Broke evenly. |
| 1944 | Incumbent FDR vs. Dewey | FDR 47, Dewey 45 | FDR 47, Dewey 45 | FDR 53, Dewey 46 | Broke towards incumbent. |
| 1948 | Incumbent Truman vs. Dewey | Dewey 46, Truman 40 | Dewey 50, Truman 45 | Truman 50, Dewey 45 | Broke towards the incumbent. |
| 1952 | No incumbents. Democrats the incumbent party. Ike vs. Stevenson | Ike 51, Stevenson 38 | Ike 48, Stevenson 39 | Ike 55, Stevenson 44 | Broke evenly. |
| 1956 | Incumbent Ike vs. Stevenson | Ike 51, Stevenson 41 | Ike 51, Stevenson 41 | Ike 57, Stevenson 42 | Broke towards incumbent. |
| 1960 | No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Nixon vs. Kennedy | Kennedy 49, Nixon 45 | Kennedy 49, Nixon 45 | Kennedy 50, Nixon 50 | Broke for incumbent VP. |
| 1964 | Incumbent LBJ vs. Goldwater | LBJ 64, Goldwater 29 | LBJ 64, Goldwater 29 | LBJ 61, Goldwater 38 | Broke towards challenger. |
| 1968 | No incumbents. Democrats the incumbent party. Humphrey vs. Nixon | Nixon 43, Humphrey 31 | Nixon 44, Humphrey 36 | Nixon 43, Humphrey 43 | Broke towards incumbent party. |
| 1972 | Incumbent Nixon vs. McGovern | Nixon 60, McGovern 34 | Nixon 59, McGovern 36 | Nixon 61, McGovern 38 | Broke evenly. |
| 1976 | Incumbent Ford vs. Carter | Carter 47, Ford 41 | Carter 48, Ford 44 | Carter 50, Ford 48 | Slight break towards incumbent. |
| 1980 | Incumbent Carter vs. Reagan | Carter 47, Reagan 39 | Carter 47, Reagan 39 | Reagan 51, Carter 41 | Broke strongly towards challenger. So did some of the decideds. |
| 1984 | Incumbent Reagan vs. Mondale | Reagan 58, Mondale 38 | Reagan 56, Mondale 39 | Reagan 59, Mondale 41 | Broke evenly. |
| 1988 | No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Bush vs. Dukakis | Bush 49, Dukakis 43 | Bush 53, Dukakis 39 | Bush 53, Dukakis 46 | Broke evenly from a month out. Broke slightly towards challenger from the 2nd to last poll. |
| 1992 | Incumbent Bush vs. Clinton | Clinton 47, Bush 29 | Clinton 43, Bush 36 | Clinton 43, Bush 38 | Broke towards incumbent. |
| 1996 | Incumbent Clinton vs. Dole | Clinton 48, Dole 39 | Clinton 52, Dole 41 | Clinton 49, Dole 41 | Broke evenly. |
| 2000 | No incumbent President. Incumbent VP Gore vs. Bush | Bush 48, Gore 43 | Bush 47, Gore 45 | Gore 48, Bush 48 | Broke towards incumbent VP. |
With only three exceptions, the incumbent party's candidate did at least as well as the challenger with the late breaking vote, and usually did a lot better. The three exceptions? Barry Goldwater and Mike Dukakis each made small gains while remaining considerably behind in an impending crushing defeat. Ronald Reagan proved to be the exception to every rule, winning not only the undecideds but also taking away considerable support from Jimmy Carter during the last weeks of the 1980 election.
Interesting list. Voters like stability. It tends to serve incumbents well.
Anyway, I think what Luntz is saying in not so coded words, is that Bush needs 3% lead to overcome fraud. Sounds about right.
Fascinating chart.
Thanks for doing the work on that. What poll did you use for the end?