[HawaiianGecko]

	Frank Newport of the Gallup organization says undecides break for the challenger.   Boston, Mass.: From a historical standpoint, where do Bush's numbers need to be going into election day? I've heard that he needs to be above 51% to offset undecides who break for the challenger. If this is the case, it seems his people might be a bit concerned at this point. Barring any major news or gaffes, I suspect we'll see these same polling numbers come Nov. 2nd. Frank Newport: Interesting point. There is a consistent conventional wisdom that "undecides break for the challenger"; i.e., that "what you see is what you get" for an incumbent. The idea is that incumbents are well known, and those who remain undecided have in essence already decided that they are wary of voting for the incumbent.

[rintense]

That argument simply won't work this year. According to a FNC poll, 66% of likely voters think it is 'upsetting' to change Presidents in a time of war. They view it as unsettling. Those numbers alone point to a swing to Bush with undecideds.

[rwfromkansas]

How do you get your post background?