>>> Where are you getting that 50% break for the challenger? <<<

I have no clue what you are referring to with respect to 50%. I didn't post anything using that number or anything close to it.

>>> As I've said before, Luntz is the only pollster that has undecideds headed to the challenger. <<<

I'm impressed that you've said that before, but since I posted two different articles by the Gallup organization where their Editor in Chief Frank Newport claims that undecideds break for the challenger, including URL's for those statements, it makes your statement false. Therefore, I am no longer impressed with your argument. I hope you're correct, as I'd like to see the President stomp Kerry into the ground.

My argument that undecideds break for the challenger was to demonstrate that a chart posted by a NON-POLLING organization, specifically dalythoughts.com, might not be correct and people shouldn't necessarily take the data of a blogger over the data of a polling organization that has been around for over seventy years. The guy may be right, but just putting a bunch of numbers into a chart and preaching it to the choir doesn't make it correct.

IN FACT at the bottom of the daythoughts.com page that has the aforementioned chart he references this article http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/9/3/22294/96534 that clearly says that 72% of undecideds vote for the challenger.

Incumbent Rule Research Update

by Chris Bowers

Lately, I have been spouting off about how undecideds tend to break about 60% for the challenger and 40% for the incumbent in the final week of the campaign. I was basing this off of a quick estimate from research I had done five weeks ago. However, I had never actually sat down and crunched the numbers to truly determine the average undecided swing in the final week of a campaign in elections involving an incumbent. Now I have, and that is one Friday afternoon and evening that I will never get back.

Using my own research as well as research sent to me by Nick Panagakis of the National Council on Public Polls, I have gone through 451 poll results since 1976. In all 451 cases, the poll was in the field for at least one day that was within seven days of the election. In every case, it was the final poll taken by the polling firm for the campaign in question. Also, I do not believe that any internal or partisan poll results were used. Unfortunately, outside of the Presidential race, I was severely lacking in data from 1996.

My methodology worked as follows:

1. Subtract the final poll result for the incumbent from the actual election result for the incumbent to determine the total number of points the incumbent gained from the final poll until the election. Total all 451 of these results to determine the total number of points all incumbents gained from all final polls until the election.
2. Subtract the final poll result for the challenger from the actual election result for the challenger to determine the total number of points the challenger gained from the final poll until the election. Total all 451 of these results to determine the total number of points all challenges gained from all final polls until the election.
3. Take the total from step #1 and add it to the total from step #2. Divide this total into both the result from step #1 and step #2 to determine the relative gain for the incumbent and the challenger.

The results were as follows:

      
Year	  Polls    Und.    Inc.  Chal. 
President   28	  2.4	 14%	86%
1976-88    155	 11.8	 20%	80%
1994	  101	 11.2	 35%	65%
1998	   76	 10.1	 27%	73%
2000	   31	  8.6	 40%	60%
2002-4	   60	  7.5	 42%	58%
1992-04    283	  8.9	 34%	66%
Total	  451	  9.7	 28%	72%

Update-05-26-04.htm click on the statement My Election Analysis: Whither The Undecideds Then in the green box that says "About Me" click on View My Complete Profile

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Age: 31
Gender: male
Astrological Sign: Capricorn
Born in the Year of the: Rat

Now, I don't know about you, but I am personally leery of people that claim to be born in the year of the rat.