" Hopefully, you will address the next to last poll query"
I thought I had-- since you think I have not I have to conclude that I am not understanding your question. Can you rephrase it better or differently or more specifically?
You answered while I was typing my post. And Carter's numbers were indeed terrible I see. What we have here is a close election with Bush having an approval rating of around 50%, with a very divided electorate, with generally strong views. There is no modern template for this election. The past is in my view irrelevant from a data point of view. And we are at war, which tends to push dissatisfied voters who are cross conflicted towards the incumbent. In short, we just don't know a thing about how undecideds will break vis a vis the past. Absolutely nothing.
That's my take at the moment, until you manage to change my mind again. :)