That 18% doesn't really amount to much, unless you can convince me otherwise. Blacks represent about 12% of the population. In 2000, they cast about 10% of the ballots, meaning they voted less than their numbers would normally suggest.
If Bush goes from 8% of the black vote to 18% (a huge increase, to be sure), that suggests about a 1% shift in the popular vote.
That sounds great, but since most of the black vote is located in the south, states that Bush will probably sweep anyway, its effect is even further diminished.
First off, I said "[t]wo separate factors could give Bush a landslide victory." Meaning the Christian vote and the black vote. In addition, the get out the vote efforts by both the Dems and the GOP have been quite significant this time around. So there will be more Americans voting overall and therefore, more black Amewricans voting too.
>>>> ... but since most of the black vote is located in the south, states that Bush will probably sweep anyway, its effect is even further diminished.
According to 2003 data from the Census Bureau, southern states contain about half of the entire US black population. So everything considered, I believe if Bush doubles the amount of total votes he garners with black America, that will be a big plus in his overall election victory.