Survey USA: Pennsylvania - Kerry 51%, Bush 45%; Specter 48%, Hoeffel 41%

Survey USA ^ | 10/18/2004 | Survey USA

[Wolfstar]

...thanks to 100% Dem voter turnout in Philly...

More likely 110% voter turnout. Can't forget the cemetary vote.

[JohnBDay]

Specter is up by more than seven. There have been yard signs saying "Vote Kerry-Specter" or something like that. No one seems to know what organization made them though.

[Wolfstar]

I'll say it again - who answers their phone anymore?

Yours is an excellent point. Most people with land-line phones now use voicemail. They'll answer their cell phones, but those are not being captured in polls.

We also keep hearing about record numbers of registrations around the country. Just heard a report on ABC radio locally while at lunch today that L.A. county is reporting a record volume of registrations.

Who are these people? Will they turn out, and if they do, who will they favor? The polls are not capturing this phenomenon, because, just like campaigns, they work off older voter rolls.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Specter is up by more than seven. There have been yard signs saying "Vote Kerry-Specter" or something like that. No one seems to know what organization made them though.

Probably the Specter campaign itself... I wouldn't put anything past that worthless RINO.

[zook]

Poll taken Friday, Saturday, and Sunday?!!! Worthless.

[Coop]

I'm thinking PA is out of reach for W.

Because of one poll? Kind of silly, don't you think?

[AntiGuv]

Not to be a spoilsport, but the only reason state polls 'trail' national polls by a week is because the latest poll for a given state is often outdated by the time the latest national polls have been released. These Survey USA numbers are not outdated at all, so they are not trailing the national polls. That doesn't mean they aren't outliers though.

[MoodyBlu]

I still don't understand how Santorum received 200,000 more votes than Bush in 2000. No one can convince me that a PA voter went for Gore than voted down ballot for Santorum.

I wish we could find out the real extent of the fraud in Philly. I am just sick that PA went for Gore after I worked my butt off for Bush in 2000. The fraud was the cause.

MoodyBlu

[AuH2ORepublican]

"No one can convince me that a PA voter went for Gore than voted down ballot for Santorum."

---

Oh, but they certainly did in the RINO-infested Philly suburbs. Many RINOs decided to vote for Al Gore because they feared George W. Bush and besides they didn't want to rock the Clinton-Gore boat, but stuck with Santorum because they liked his job performance, plus his opponent was a social conservative and economic liberal from Western PA, exactly the "wrong" type of Democrat for Philly metro area RINOs.

As for fraud in Philly, I'm sure there is some, but (i) it is nowhere near what many FReepers claim---the canard that some Philly precincts had over 100% turnout has been disproven again and again, and (ii) we have to stop blaming electoral defeats on RAT fraud if we are to start winning states like Pennsylvania. I think President Bush is a perfect Republican candidate for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania---one whose social conservatism will attract blue-collar Democrats from the Pittsburgh area and the "T," whose economic conservatism will attract RINOs from the Pilly area, and whose steady leadership on national security will attract both types---and I think he will carry the state on November 2nd.

[Aloysius88]

I had to comment. Why do the Sunday polls favor the democrats? Because the Republicans are in church.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"RINO Arlen Specter could have been vulnerable to the right kind of Democrat."

---

I agree that Tim Holden or Bob Casey could have been lethal to Arlen Specter. But I thought even Hoeffel could have given Arlen trouble, even though he wasn't such a good fit for blue-collar Democrats, because (i) being an economic liberal, he at least had *something* to offer blue-collar Dems, which Arlen certainly doesn't (other than seniority and his usual lies), and (ii) being from Montco, he could cut into Arlen's usual margins in the Philly area and make it more difficult for Arlen to get close to 50%. But I guess Arlen will luck out once again---I just hope he doesn't become Chairman of Judiciary or that he doesn't die before his term expires (Ed Rendell would name his replacement).

Right now, there are enough close Senate races that I cannot say with 100% certainty that the GOP will have at least 52 Senate seats even if Arlen Specter loses. But I think by Election Day we might reach that level of certainty, and if so I would suggest that Pennsylvania conservatives consider voting for Clymer, the only conservative in the race, since we are better off with 52 GOP Senators and Jon Kyl as Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee than with 53 Republicans and RINO Arlen Specter blocking every conservative that Bush tries to nominate.

[AmarilloMorning]

Darn, I hope we win PA. SUSA is notoriously unreliable, so maybe we will.

[Republican Wildcat]

The Specter number raises a red flag for me as well. This is likely an outlier.

[Theodore R.]

PA always offers a false allure for conservatives, but the state mostly goes Democrat for President, and I don't think we can do anything about it. Prior to 1936, it almost never voted Democrat for President, but times change.

[airborne]

I called my local Republican Committee office and told them I couldn't get my wheelchair into their 2nd floor office. They told me to call when I pulled up outside, and they would bring the tickets to my door.

[eeriegeno]

If this election is not a landslide then God help us because only a fool would vote for kerry.

But there are a lot of 'fools' out there who will vote the democratic party line without thinking about the consequences!

[Holden Magroin]

Seems like Bush is leading nationally because he's doing even better in the Southern states. One recent Alabama poll showed him beating Kerry by 40 points. In the swing states, though, he seems to be losing ground, and that is troubling.

[AGreatPer]

"They told me to call when I pulled up outside, and they would bring the tickets to my door."

That is a class act by the RNC-PA.

It looks like some rain for Thursday and being outdoors at Hershey Park Stadium doesn't sound inviting although I would like to go.

I think I will just go to the airport again and see Airforce 1. That is cool. Also, they go rt 322 just behind my house to Hershey. I have waved several times from my hill.

[AGreatPer]

What buggs me more than anything is Bush coming back here for the umptienth time. It is not necessary, preaching to the choir. He already has our votes. Get you butt down to Philadelphia.