Posted on 10/18/2004 3:30:53 PM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
The SUSA polls released today seem to overstate Democrat support by quite a bit. If Bush is ahead nationally by 2%-8% like most polls show, how can he be down 5% in PA, especially since he was down only 2% in PA when he was tied in national polls? And Specter is only up 48%-41%? He's been deep into the 50s most of the race, making me (and other Toomey supporters) look bad in the process (I thought that Specter might be vulnerable to Hoeffel, although that was before I saw what a bad candidate Hoeffel has been). And if Bush is only up by 5% in Arkansas, why did Kerry pull ads out of the state? And how can Bush only be up 3% in uncontested NC, especially while Burr is up 2%? And Kerry up 1% in FL while Mel Martinez is up 2%?
My guesstimate is that these latest SUSA polls are 4% more Democrat than reality, and thus, recalibrated, Bush is up 3% in FL (with Martinez up by 6%), Kerry up 2% in PA (with Specter up 11%), Bush up 7% in NC (with Burr up 6% and Ballantine down 8% in the gubernatorial race), and Bush up 9% in AR (with Holt down 15% in the Senate race).
The line to get Bush tickets for Thursaday in Hershey was 3 hours long. Love him, but no thanks.
I agree. I don't like Spectre, but the Republicans decided to keep him in the primaries. Even if Toomey voters were to sit this one out, and I think most won't, the Liberals are lining up behind Spectre.
I don't believe the vote is that close.
Sounds reasonable. However, Rasmussen's premium numbers have a similar margin for Kerry in PA (with leaners) and have a tighter Florida race than a four-point calabration would allow.
I wonder what effect weekend football and ALCS and NCLS would have on these polling results though. There's likely to be more Kerry-ite girliemen wusses in a weekend poll that don't know the difference between a football and a baseball.
Dumb dumb people from Pa.
When was the last time NC voted for a Democrat for President? Jimmy Carter? They also elected Jesse Helms for decades. Pennsylvania can't compete.
DO NOT BELIEVE THIS POLL.
Seems like Sunday was just an over all good polling day for Kerry. Doesn't really mean much except that it shows yet again that weekend polling favor Democraps.
Yeah, but you have to admit that the PA Dems have 'helped' Arlen over the years by running a series of weak candidates against him. Arlen has got to be the luckiest man in politics.
i'll say it again - who answers their phone anymore?
The reason for that is Pennsylvania has more committed partisans and fewer swing voters than other states. Another thing to remember, Bob Dole came closer to winning in Pennsylvania than George Bush the Elder did. Pennsylvania has an unusual political mix: socially conservative and economically labor-liberal.
Republicans are at worship, and those who aren't are working or recreating.
A large number of Dems are identifying themselves as Republicans to pollsters. The same way they identify themselves as Republicans when they call talk radio and CSPAN to crucify the President. They're taught to do this at seminars conducted by the DNC -- we know this for a fact.
It's a systematic effort by the Democratic Party. And if you don't think they're out to manipulate polls to influence public perception, go back and look at what McAuliffe called for in his pre-debate e-mail blasts.
This race isn't nearly as close as it's being made out to be.
Good point. Folks without caller ID are more likely to be poor, which makes them more likely to be Democrats.
That's quite a feat considering these pollsters pick 600-1000 people out of millions.
It's unbelieveable that Joe Hoeffel has pulled this close. He is such a lame candidate, I can't imagine why the 'Rats supported him.
RINO Arlen Specter could have been vulnerable to the right kind of Democrat. Auditor Bob Casey or Congressman Tim Holden could have won a substantial cross-over vote from social and religious conservatives, including Pat Toomey supporters. But instead, the 'Rats chose someone with an even more appalling record than Specter. Whoever decided to annoint Hoeffel will be roasting over a slow flame after election day.
By GeorgeW I believe you're right. Give it some time.
Out of 1000 people, only 15 have to misidentify themselves to skew the results significantly.
They've been teaching this method of operation for years. It doesn't take long for it to sink in among their constituency.
Again, 15 out of 1000 will do the trick just fine.
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