I won't be close. Bush has broken the 50% mark among catholic voters, and doubled his support from 2000 among Jews and Black voters. The polls can say whatever, but it will be 55 - 45 or better for Bush. If Kerry drops under 40 it will be a 400 EV blowout. More mud on the face of the backwater media.
I hope you are right.
Which is why Kerry himself is pleading with supporters to vote early. He needs to lock in their vote before momentum - or another Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ad - changes their vote to GWB!