Dear skellmeyer,
As the opinion of the theologian tapped by the CDF is, as yet, unofficial, the tribunal could simply ignore it, and declare that it is not, per se, heretical to be a pro-abort Catholic politician. Sinful, yes, heretical, no.
Then, it would get kicked up to Rome, I suppose, on appeal. Then Rome would have to tackle the question directly.
I'm not saying a tribunal would do this, only that they could.
I guess it also depends on what matter Archbishop O'Malley gives to the tribunal. I imagine that in calling the tribunal, Archbishop O'Malley gets to decide the question(s) they must answer.
He may say that the question of objective heresy is open, and to be decided (I think that's doubtful.).
Or he may say, the question of heresy is closed - it is heretical - but the question of whether Mr. Kerry is guilty of it is open (this is more the case you present - in which case, I lean toward your view, it's a slam dunk.).
He could also say, "It is clear that Mr. Kerry is a self-excommunicated obstinate heretic, but the case as presented by Mr. Balestrieri asks for damages to undo the harm done by Mr. Kerry's heresy."
Or, he may just be very vague and say, "Here's the complaint, guys, you deal with it."
I think that's the most likely. And then the tribunal could, if it wished, decide that to personally oppose abortion, but accept that in a pluralistic society, the law may be legitimately otherwise, is not heresy, though perhaps sinful.
Again, I'm not saying they would do that, just that they could.
sitetest
However, given the politics of the situation, O'Malley would be a fool not to control the process as much as he could - after all, this is a tribunal on him as much as it is on Kerry. Thus, I strongly believe it will play out as I outlined above: a slam dunk. He could try to distance himself, or finesse the complaint, but he's just ASKING for trouble that way. Marc has already shown he's willing to appeal this thing all the way to Rome, and O'Malley knows it. Rome has already advertised her position by choosing a theologian who she knew would write what he did. The nuances here are as important as the words.
Although theoretically there are a lot of possibilities, too many moves have already been made on the board. Kerry is, in reality, one step away from checkmate, and he's got no counter.