Posted on 10/17/2004 8:06:44 AM PDT by Shenandoah
WOW.
Look at this everybody.
Great post Shendandoah.
You're a gem!
Thanks
Because a picture is worth.......go to this page:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html
Poll
|
Date
|
Bush/
Cheney |
Kerry/
Edwards |
Nader/
Camejo |
Spread
|
|
|
RCP Average
|
10/12 - 10/16
|
48.4%
|
45.4%
|
1.6%
|
Bush +3.0
|
|
10/14 - 10/16
|
46%
|
44%
|
1%
|
Bush +2
|
|
|
10/14 - 10/15
|
48%
|
47%
|
3%
|
Bush +1
|
|
|
10/14 - 10/15
|
50%
|
44%
|
1%
|
Bush +6
|
|
|
10/13 - 10/15
|
50%
|
47%
|
1%
|
Bush +3
|
|
|
10/12 - 10/15
|
48%
|
45%
|
2%
|
Bush +3
|
Take a look at the Iowa Electronic Markets graph, at:
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm
Tradesports is looking good as well:
http://www.tradesports.com/
A couple of weeks to go.
Is that Poland Spring water he has there? What a phony. Everyone knows this clymer only drinks that French Evian crap, chilled to 40 degrees for a minimum of three hours, and only from a crystal goblet.
FWIW, can someone do a comparison on Zogby's numbers over the past 15 years. It seems he always tends to be the most accurate.
Lookin' good!
Great chart! Thank you.
This goes a long way towards explaining why the MSM is in fullscale desperation spin mode for Kerry and against every Republican in sight.
Either the polls were wrong or there was significant voter fraud. Unfortunately, I see the same thing happening in this cycle.
The worst outcome is further voter fraud. It destroys American's belief in their democracy.
By looking at a weekly, biweekly and monthly trend one takes the statistical noise out of the daily tracking polls.
When you do this the trend is unmistakably stark and very heartening for the President:
Kerry is flatlined to a miniscule rise from April to Today. He started at 44-45% and is still at 45% (maybe 45.5%). He has IOW hit his ceiling. he may get a 1-2 pt bounce from undecideds, but that is very questionable.
Bush meanwhile has a healthy and steady UPWARD trend line. He started at 42-43% in April and has steadily climbed to 48-49% today.
Just as in Business, stocks, etc -- trends are your friend and they Don't lie. Kerry is stagnant, Bush is rising.
The DUI charge was a major factor in that.
Although there was some voter fraud, it didn't seem enough to be signficant. And I suggest the polls were right. What I thought happened was the Thursday-before-the-election revelation of W's old DUI and his ineffective response to it. Some voters switched on that last weekend.
If what you say about trends is true, then we should all be concerned that notwithstanding the growing Bush lead in aggregate popular vote at RCP and IEM, the ELECTORAL race is NARROWING, as RCP figures themselves show. We would be remiss to become complacent and over-cocky at this juncture.
The race appears uncomfortably close at this juncture, meaning that Bush is susceptible to the very sort of last minute surprise he experienced in 2000. So whether it is a campaign dirty trick such as the DUI revelations in 2000, or just unpleasant news over which the president doesn't have much control, in Iraq, in oil markets etc., Bush's apparent coast towards victory can still be upset by any of a number of factors. This is the time to redouble efforts to ensure that every Bush supporter gets to the polls.
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