President's Job Approval Averaging Below 50%. What are We to Make of This?

Real Clear Politics (RCP) ^

[rjmeagle]

I was watching the Beltway Boys on FNC this evening and Mort and Fred briefly touched on the subject of the President's JA rating. Fred said, and I am paraphrasing that "it is worrisome". Is this really all that important? Should we focus more on state-by-state? How are we to take a "measure" of it's applicably in an election cycle where the electorate is evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats with the undecideds making up the rest? Trying to figure this out. Any ideas/comments/observations folks?

[counterpunch]

A lot of questions about what we are to make of things around here...

[Gibtx]

nothing

[ambrose]

Gas prices.

[Trepz]

Ignore the polls. More media attempts to discourage votes for Bush. Look at the source of that poll used by Barnes and Kondracke. It was the Chicago Tribune. Hardly a likely source for impartial information on Bush.

[small voice in the wilderness]

...lots of questions suddenly...hmmm...what are we to make of this...?...

[Texasforever]

All by OCT 12th sign-ups.

[Jeff Chandler]

Every hour on the hour there is a 'news' story about high gas prices. This has been going on for a couple months now.

[rjmeagle]

Absolutely. As the old adage goes "two heads are better than one". I would like to see what others in FR think rather than stew in my own juices and perhaps be guilty of making "a mountain out of a mole hill"

[ladyinred]

Well, he has been attacked nonstop for months and months by the mainstream media who a lot of people think are honest.

[rjmeagle]

The average of the polls was from RCP which used Time, Rasmussen, CBS and CNN. I am NOT attesting to the veracity or reputation of these pollsters. Just pointing out that this is where the averaging has come from.

[plushaye]

It makes him vulnerable but not extremely so. The state polls are the most important because EV's win the election. The national polls are trending up, so this should drive the JA and state polls higher.

[teletech]

I remember a post a while back about JA rating and winning a second term. I believe it showed that the JA had to be below 30 befor it would deep six you. Anyone remember that post and where it might be found?

[LisaS]

According to Gallup, 2 of the last 5 presidents had JA ratings under 50% and were not re-elected (Bush and Carter). What they rarely mention is that their JA ratings were in the low 30% range. Gallup stated that they do not know the impact of a JA rating that hovers just below 50%.

In the absence of real data, I prefer not to fret the numbers. Kerry's approval/disapproval is not any better than Bush's at the moment.

[Buckeye Battle Cry]

Wasn't it at 54 just yesterday? Something stinks on this one.

[rjmeagle]

Does anyone know of a source showing the history of JAs vis-a-vis each election cycle?

[AlGone2001]

We are to make of it that kerry will still get a whooping on November 2nd.

[King Prout]

I suspect you will be asking yourself a different question shortly:

"Izzat ozone I smell? And why does my butt hurt?"

[Boundless]

> Every hour on the hour there is a 'news' story about high gas prices.

I daresay anyone who cares, already knows. At 40 mpg,
we don't.

Meanwhile, the JA% is even more meaningless than the
election polls. The JA only matters insofar as it
affects the voting, and it has to affect the polling
results even before that.

If the legacy media is trumpeting "low" JA, it's
because they don't have actual bad news on Bush to report.