Analysis: 8 States May Decide Election (FL, OH, PA, WI, IA, NV, NH, NM)

AP (Yahoo) ^ | 10/16/04 | RON FOURNIER

[Toidylop]

You're absolutely right. Minnesocold will be in Bush column :). No doubt. We know how close the poll is for President Bush. When you see the MSM ignores it that means one thing: It's definitely in play or leaning Bush. If it's in sKerry's column, they wouldn't want to campaign there!!!

[MNJohnnie]

Minnesota, IMO, is not really in play.

There has been ONLY ONE poll all year long showing the President up... and that poll is over a month old and only showed President Bush up 2.

We would be foolish to spend any time in Minnesota when Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Iowa, and Ohio are all clearly closer

Ohio is vital. Minnesota is closer then PA will ever be. Iowa is a lost cause. TOO much hard core labor activists and Harkin is popular even if he is a nut job. Don't know about NM but it is only 5. Flipping MN is a 20 point swing. Knocks 10 off Kerry ADDS 10 to Bush. Sorry but you are focusing far too much on polls that are weighted by registration. Lots of old Democrats here are conservative Democrats. We are the only State with a DEMOCRAT PRO LIFE caucus. They will never admit it to anyone, but a lot of these people are going to the booth and pulling the R lever. Coleman won Minnesota in 2002 by MORE votes then Bush LOST it in 2000. Sorry but you are over fixed on poorly designed polls while I am living it here on the ground. MINNESOTA is in play.

[MNJohnnie]

You're absolutely right. Minnesocold will be in Bush column :). No doubt. We know how close the poll is for President Bush. When you see the MSM ignores it that means one thing: It's definitely in play or leaning Bush. If it's in sKerry's column, they wouldn't want to campaign there!!!


Not only that. the Minneapolis DFL paper, the Star Tribune puts it a 5 point lead for Kerry. That is EXACTLY the same margin they gave Mondale in 2002. Take your basic 10 point correction to any DFL Minneapolis Star poll (Subtract 5% from the Dem sample and give it to the Republican) and you are looking at EXACTLY the same margin Coleman won by in 2002. I know it is really really hard for anyone who Remembers 1984 but MINNESOTA is in play.

[Jim Noble]

NH is very close.

I am very surprised at Kerry's strength here.

[PintailConservative]

I would not be as confident as you seem to be, although I wish i were. Consider this.

Ohio-- RealClear politics has an average of recent polling showing Sen. Kerry with a slight lead in the polls. Couple that with the widespread and ubiquitous voter fraud that the democrats will pull in Ohio, and there is a strong chance that Kerry will take ohio

Florida--While I dont trust polling in this state due to hurricaine damage, there seems to be a consensus that bush has a slight lead.

Wisconsin-- Very close, but in Bush's column

Iowa--Polls are close, a tossup really, but for sake of my argument give Iowa to Kerry

New Mexico-- Tossup as well, but for arguments sake, Bush

New Hampshire- Ther will be an influx of volunteers to try to sway NH, but as of now, Kerry has a lead

Nevada--Bush

Add all this up, and you get...gulp... 269 to 269

The house votes for the president Bush, the Senate votes for the VP, but can we trust Specter, Chafee, McCain, Hegel, Snowe, Collins ect to vote for Cheney?

Let this be a reminder that they will cheat, and that we have to work as hard as we can within the rules to bring victory about

[TNCMAXQ]

Anyone see Beltway Boys tonight? They give OH and WI to Kerry but still have Bush up with 283 EV's. This doesn't make sense. I think their math may be wrong, or they are still giving MI to Bush based on a poll that was taken weeks ago.

[VadeRetro]

Bush is running close in Oregon, not even mentioned, where one poll today has him up 5. He has the momentum. It's hard to see how Kerry scores any points from here unless he has the October Suprise from Hell up his sleeve.

[Cableguy]

Ignore their EV. Bunch of crap. The best analysis is at realclearpolitics or Hotline if you have access.

[Cableguy]

That OR poll is probably a fluke. If OR is truly in play, Bushies would be flooding it with ads. See my earlier post:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1247208/posts

[MNJohnnie]

d all this up, and you get...gulp... 269 to 269

Nope because between now and election day you are going to see it flip one way or the other. It will NOT be as close as people say and the trend is too Bush. There is nothing in Kerry's campaign that indicates they are capable of reversing this trend. Bush is out there talking National Security Kerry is talking about FLU VACCINE???? They REALLY are as stupid as we think they are. The Kerry Campaign is just not very good strategically. They are good at the media spin, at the punch/countepunch but really not very good Strategic campaigners. As much as it pains me to agree with the Kerry clown that wrote this, Ron Fouriner, if the Bush trend holds at 3-5 points Nationally, the close states will flip and you will see a 300 plus electoral vote count for Bush. It all comes down to turn out and I got to tell you, Republicans are going to walk thru fire and ice to vote this year. Kerry has SCARED people so bad with his quintessential 1970s mindset that they will be there even if their dying breath is spent pulling the lever for W.

[MNJohnnie]

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108322/


The Leftist at Slate are calling it for Bush.

[bushsupporter30]

Florida is scary! The Rats have the southern part locked up with busing people, and illegals and all the rest and 1000s of lawyers. It gives me a bit of comfort though that they tried to pull the same thing with Jeb in 2002 and he won convincgly. Also, in the senate primaries, the Republican contenders put together had more votes (about 50-60k) than the democratic contenders and I imagine that didnt include a lot of the military vote who probably didnt care about the senate primaries!

[ken5050]

Did you read that little gem that " Clinton wants Kerry to campaign in Arkansas"..guess Bubba wants Kerry to waste his time..and lose.

[Cableguy]

Good catch. If Kerry goes down there, NRA and Swift Vets would blow both of them out of the water.

[okstate]

That OR poll is from Riley Research, which has historically always favored Republicans by several points.

[DefCon]

Ha, Slate says Jersey is tied.
I don't believe it, and neither do any of the other seven analysts that I read daily.

[DefCon]

Just 2 weeks to go but a lot can happen in 2 weeks.
If it were tomorrow, it would all hinge on Ohio.

[MNJohnnie]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I bet your "7 analysts" are the same set of News Media geniuses that were predicting the Democrats would retain control of the US Senate in 2002. But in this case I agree. New Jersey is a rotten boughs. The Democratic Machine is too corrupt and too deeply entrenched. There is no way Bush will be allowed to carry NJ no matter how blatant the Democrat fraud has to be in NJ.

[MNJohnnie]

Just 2 weeks to go but a lot can happen in 2 weeks.
If it were tomorrow, it would all hinge on Ohio.

Yep. Ohio is the KEY. Bush carrys Ohio and it is all over but for the lawsuits.

[AlGone2001]

If New Jersey goes for Bush, we can all retire early on election night.

No way. I'm gonna celebrate all night.

I think I'll visit our friends at DUh and rub it in. Any one else in?