Reagan got 40% of the Jewish vote and Bush will do at least that well. Reagan won reelection, fyi. :)
What makes you say that? Wishful thinking?
"Washington, DC: A just-released survey demonstrates that despite a four-year effort, GOP attempts to woo the Jewish vote for President Bush have failed, with likely Jewish voters preferring Senator Kerry over President Bush by a whopping 75-22 percent margin -- essentially identical to the 76-21 percent margin by which the same respondents voted for then-Vice President Al Gore over then-Governor Bush in 2000."
-- njdc.org