Posted on 10/14/2004 3:13:47 PM PDT by Theodore R.
Libertarians could rock the Texas vote Nov. 2.
Thursday, October 14, 2004
DALLAS — If you thought more Republicans are running in Texas' 32 congressional districts this year than Democrats, you'd be right. There are 29, versus 28 Democrats.
If you thought Republicans had the most of any party, you'd be wrong.
That's the Libertarians, with 30. They left unchallenged only Republicans Ron Paul of Surfside in the 14th District, the Libertarians' presidential candidate in 1988, and former Fort Worth Mayor Kay Granger in the 12th.
The significance of this show of candidates is not that even one Texas Libertarian expects to be sworn in next January in Washington. Some don't even live in the districts for which they're running (which is legal).
What matters is that Libertarian candidates generally draw votes that mostly would go to Republicans. And the Green Party, usually presumed to draw away from Democrats, isn't on the Texas ballot this year.
After redistricting last year, engineered by Republican House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, five targeted incumbent Democrats are battling for survival in Republican-leaning districts, two of them against incumbent Republicans.
In some, the draw-off by a Libertarian could decide who wins.
In Dallas' 32nd District, incumbent Republican Pete Sessions is challenged by incumbent Democrat Martin Frost, whose 24th District was made so Republican that Frost actually thought it easier to run against Sessions.
The race might be the most expensive in the country this year, with a house-to-house search for voters. A recent Dallas Morning News poll showed Sessions with a lead of 50 percent to 44 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Frost's people spun the results as good for them, for two reasons: Just 4 percent of eligible Hispanic voters were polled, when the district is 36 percent Hispanic, and no allowance was left for the Libertarian draw-off from Sessions.
Running against Sessions in 2002, Libertarian Steve Martin got 1.06 percent, or 1,582 votes. That may not sound like much, but it's almost triple the 537-vote margin George W. Bush had over Al Gore in 2000 in Florida that gave him the presidency. Ralph Nader's Green Party candidacy drew off 97,488 votes, most of which presumably would have otherwise gone to Gore.
Although Sessions won easily in the 32nd District in 2002 over a Democratic no-name, Green Party candidate Carla Hubbell got 0.81 percent, or 1,208 votes. This year, there is no Green Party hopeful to draw votes away from Frost.
Four other Democratic incumbents could benefit from a Libertarian draw-off statewide.
Five other districts whose incumbents aren't considered vulnerable have independent candidates on the ballot. And the new 10th, a Republican stronghold that stretches from Austin to Houston, drew Democratic write-in Lorenzo Sadun after no Democrat filed.
Libertarians and other independents have little chance of gaining office, but at least some of the Libertarians have a chance to affect the outcome Nov. 2.
Dave McNeely's column runs Thursdays. He can be reached at dmcneely@statesman.com or 445-3644.
The ponytailguys strike again!
personally I'd Rather See a Libertarian take a seat from a Dem but I'd hate to see one Spoil a republicans chance. After all At lease we know Libertarians aren't going to try to infringe on our check book in the form of new taxes and will protect our constitutional rights. I personally will vote for a strong Libertarian canadate over a week Republican.
Yes, he did.
Hey! The ponytail guy's quote in 92 was "How can we, as symbolically the children of the future president, expect the two of you - the three of you - to meet our needs?" This, along with "raise my taxes", are among the least likely things you will ever hear from a Libertarian's mouth.
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