Polling Mismatches

Real Clear Politics ^ | 10/143/04

[pabianice]

Today's RealClearPolitics Battleground States summary shows Kerry ahead in Ohio by +2. However, they use only three recent polls. If you use their own polling data from 9/22 through 10/11, Bush is ahead in Ohio by +10 -- a twelve point difference.

??

[jbwbubba]

Yeah but a lot of those polls were pre first debate, and the MSM spin war on Bush

[wrathof59]

The Chicago Tribune Poll shows Kerry +4 in Ohio. I don't trust the Trib, even for sports scores. Totally worthless liberal rag sheet.

[counterpunch]

Bush has totally dropped the ball lately, and Kerry has done an exceptional job at pretending to be a hawk and obfuscating his 30 year liberal record. Kerry has managed to make statements during the debates that are on both sides of the issue at the same time, so there is a little something in there for everyone. With no one pointing this out and calling him on it, it goes unnoticed by most people and they just hear the part they want to hear.

Bush also hasn't bothered to layout his own plan. Kerry says Bush has no plan, and then Bush reinforces it by not challenging Kerry on his claim.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Frankly, I don't know what you are talking about. Bush has clearly laid out his vision for Iraq and the WOT. Kerry is the one who has said he has a plan and failed to articulate a clear strategic vision.

[counterpunch]

Bush has clearly laid out his vision for Iraq and the WOT. Kerry is the one who has said he has a plan and failed to articulate a clear strategic vision.

You're exactly right. Bush has laid out his plan for Iraq in both words and deeds everywhere except for the debates. He did a better job of it in the second debate, if only because he didn't even make an attempt in the first debate.Bush has gone about these debates, the first one in particular, as if he's already said everything that needs to be said, and even the most casual observer is well versed in his plan. Kerry understood that the debates are an opportunity to reach millions of people who haven't followed politics up to this point. Bush didn't grasp that.

[Allegra]

20 more days until I don't have to hear any more about polls.

Thank goodness.

[Freepdonia]

It would be impossible to answer every single one of Kerry's lies during the debates. Bush would have needed another hour to do so.

[My2Cents]

20 more days until I don't have to hear any more about polls.

The first Rudy v. Hillary poll will probably be out Nov. 3rd.

[capitan_refugio]

It seems odd to me that the Presidential race seems to be close, yet the Senate race looks to be a wipeout for the Republican incumbent. That mean about 20% or more of the voters are willing to cast split ballots. Interesting.

[LegalEagle61]

I am convinced that we can't listen to these biased polls...it is hard for me to believe that voters are actually stupid enough to believe the lies of Kerry. The media would like us to believe that Kerry is ahead, but I don't believe that will be the case on 11/2. You watch tonight, even if the President blows Kerry away, the media will still say Kerry won, like they did in the second debate.

[counterpunch]

It would be impossible to answer every single one of Kerry's lies during the debates. Bush would have needed another hour to do so.

That is absolutely true.
The 90 second answer, 60 second response, and 30 second rebuttal does not lend itself well to dispelling lies.
But Bush could have at least challenged Kerry's assertians by saying "that's not true" or "that's incorrect."
Even just that would have gone a long way. A lot further than not challenging Kerry at all.

[capitan_refugio]

The fundamental problem is that you could run a red brick as a candidate for president, and if it had the label of "Democrat" it would get 40% of the vote.

[wildbill]

I don't think you should go that far back. IMHO polls are only good for a snapshot of a specific moment in time.

Anything past yesterday is irrelevant because news moves into the mainstream and affects opinion so swiftly these days.

[woody9]

And what happens if he blows it again? This NOT the type of forum he does well in. Oh, yeah and CBS is moderating.

[Freepdonia]

But Bush could have at least challenged Kerry's assertians by saying "that's not true" or "that's incorrect."

Agreed.