Either people are lying about to the pollsters or the pollsters or "adjusting" the numbers. Many polls adjust their numbers in order to "balance" for various factors. Usually this means moving some votes over to Kerry's side.
Based on several polls, I'm thinking that Democrats are now identifying themselves as Republicans/conservatives but claiming they're going to vote for Kerry. (Heck, the DNC is sending out orders to screw with polls as much as possible.) A poll I saw a few days ago said that 20% of "conservatives" were going to vote for Kerry. Maybe the 1% that make up the Buchananites will just to try and spite Bush, but no way it is near 20%.
I wonder if there is any way for these pollsters to prove that who they are talking to belongs to the political party they state? If the RATs are indeed doing this, then Bush could very well be comfortably in the lead.
I think the poll you're referring to was the USA Today/Gallup poll which had some curious data. It had 24% of the conservatives voting for Kerry, and that Bush only had a 5 point lead overall in the southern states. What a boatload of crap! That's why I'm telling all of you that if you obsess over every single poll out there it's gonna drive you crazy.