I'm not aware of a map that shows percentages in a large area, but there are a few things you can look at. Maybe r_h_w can help more.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/twc_images/precfcst_440x297.jpg
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/TWC_Images/ne_precfcst_440x297.jpg
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/4panel_p.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
Thanks.
USA Today's links are through tonight.
The Plymouth 36 hour map is interesting.
If that materializes, the last minute Kerry surge could be slowed or even stopped with it impacting turnout somewhat with a last minute impetus created by the UBL tape.
The UBL tape has had no measurable impact, but the mistranslation and lack of reporting the central threat may be responsible.
I don't want to steer the thread into election speculation (there are way too many threads on that already), but despite what the experts are saying, the UBL threat is real (this was a sign of strength, not of weakness).
And if you are in a battleground state that has been trending Kerry, you may not be off the hook as a target as the weather and reexamination of the video may reverse some trends enough to make a difference in one or two states.
Whether that is enough to change the national outcome, we cannot know, but the weather and reexamined tape may swing things in a new direction and that will increase the threat at the individual state level.
Both Fox News and Rush are reporting the "state" vs "nation" wording of the threat and if that saturates in time, that may cast things in a different light.
I would have recommended the Plymouth map as well. All models are in good agreement with the rain in the eastern half of the Midwest down the Ohio River valley and more significant weather in the lower Mississippi River valley. The New England states will see light rain spreading across as the day goes on with cool temps.
