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Thread #21: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1268023/posts |
Posted on 10/12/2004 8:58:00 PM PDT by nwctwx
Anyone interested in adding a timeline of the 123 attacks on the Iraqi pipelines from 9/23/03 to 6/12/04 to their wealth of info? I don't feel like copying it if no one's interested.
http://www.trackingterrorism.com/Default.asp?dismode=article&artid=586
Saturday, October 30, 2004
Bin Laden Tape May Signal a Terror Attack on US Soil
Source: Scotsman | 9:03:52 PM EST
Government officials believe the latest tape of Osama bin Laden was made recently and are trying to determine whether its release now may be a signal of an impending attack.
Intelligence experts have determined the tape that aired yesterday “lacks what we assess to be an explicit threat and reiterates well-worn themes,” said one US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Yet many US intelligence analysts and law enforcement officials have been warning that a message from bin Laden might signal an attack. A government official, who has been briefed on current threat intelligence, said that all the attack scenarios considered by government analysts include such a message.
“The one piece they were waiting for is some kind of bin Laden videotape. And now they’ve got it,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “This has everybody on edge.”
The Bush administration, however, did not plan to raise the nation’s threat level for now, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. Most of the country has been at yellow alert, the middle of the government’s five-point warning scale, for the bulk of the year.
All officials cautioned that the tape was still being studied.
Analysts have been able to determine with a “high degree of confidence” that the voice and image on the 18-minute tape – parts of it aired by al-Jazeera – are of bin Laden, the US official said.
Among indications that the video was made recently, the US official noted that bin Laden mentions that it’s been three years since September 11, 2001, and that US deaths in Iraq have reached 1,000.
That milestone was reached in early September.
At the beginning of the video, there is also text that attributes the video to al-Sahab for Media Production, al-Qaida’s media committee, and says it was made 10 Ramadan, or last Sunday. However, experts analysing the tape cannot confirm that precise dating, the US official said.
This video is of further interest to analysts because it has English subtitles – a first for bin Laden. “We are still really early in our analysis, and we are proceeding with caution,” the US official said.
Nothing about bin Laden’s health or appearance has jumped out yet, the US official added. However, the official noted, if you compare it to the last known time bin Laden could be seen speaking on video – in December 2001 – he looks a little thinner.
The tape sparked a flurry of U.S. government meetings Friday evening as officials assessed the tape and what action to take.
A US senior law enforcement official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the tape was being scrutinised by a special FBI task force formed to disrupt a potential attack timed to coincide with the US election campaign.
The FBI and other counterterrorism agencies are especially interested in finding any hidden messages or other clues that might signal an al-Qaida attack, the official said.
The FBI also is comparing the tape to one that was aired by ABC Thursday evening in which an unidentified, disguised man claiming to be an American threatens more attacks against the US.
Before it was aired, the State Department urged the government of Qatar not to broadcast it, a senior State Department official said. Qatar helped al-Jazeera launch in 1996 with a 150 million dollar loan, but the news network has since claimed full independence.
The US reasoning was that the satellite television network should not give a platform to someone who runs terrorist operations and promotes terrorist activities, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Al-Jazeera defended its decision to air the tape, saying no one could question its news value. Spokesman Jihad Ali Ballout said the station received the tape yesterday but would not say how.
Bruce Hoffman, terrorism expert at the RAND think tank, said the timing of the tape is “exquisite” because it allows bin Laden to elbow himself into the limelight of the presidential election.
Hoffman, however, doesn’t think the message is intended to sway the outcome, but rather US policy. “He is the sworn enemy of whoever is elected president,” Hoffman said.
Related links:
http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=3693040
Joe,
You make some very good points, and I don't disagree.
However ... I think many folks are uneasy about the election and possible events surrounding it. Having the two tapes come out pretty much confirms it. If we're not already on alert, we danged well better be.
Something might happen, something might not happen. Al Quada likes to "talk big" ... one or another wanna be jihadist warns us about every two or three days that the streets are going to run with blood ... I'm aware of this.
There are just too many dots, in my mind, that fit together. One might say there's no specific information this time ... but, heck! There's a WEALTH of specific information put out pubically in the past, alot of it in mainstream media as well as places like this forum.
It is not wrong to ask the American public to be a little extra aware. As a matter of fact ... it's respectful to the average person, to let them know there is an inreased risk and to trust them to be extra aware.
I'd go so far as to say that the best protection we've got going is the vigilance of the average American.
Is it political? Well, only in the eyes of the Klinton/Kerry spin machine.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/856mpsdl.asp?pg=1
Call me naieve, but I honestly don't think Karl Rove talks to Bin Laden.
If something happens, Bush is toast if we're not on Orange alert. If NOTHING happens, the Bush administration has egg on its collective face. So what?
If Kerry had any sense, he'd CALL for the country to be on orange alert, which would cover ALL bases politically for Kerry.
BTW, I am probably the only person in the US that really LIKES the color coded system. I LOVE the color coded system. I used something similar for college notes, for prioritizing lists of things to do, and in my kitchen!!! It gives you alot of information at one glance.
I also have a collection of tin foil caps in my closet! I'm not real sure that Vince Foster really suicided, but I am pretty sure that both the price of gas and the value of the US dollar are being manipulated by speculators and off shore hedge funds, at least one of which is being run by George Soros.
Tin foil caps are very fetching when you coordinate them with patent leather pumps and a tiny metallic bag! Slap on a little irridescenct pink lipstick, and top it off with the glittered blush!
Sorry! Didn't mean to ramble, but that's what happens after gulping two cups of coffee before posting!
Yes, Cindy!
Frankly, I think it's REALLY TheRAYzuh behind the terrorist towels! ;)
Church ... actually, the third tape would go to major network reporters, so that they could film the terrorists straping on bombs, or setting off the explosion or whatever ...
Assuming that the first one is not a hoax.
Agree.
Heck, I think Bin Laden sees himself as the Mahdi ... his goal is to bring back the Caliphate in the Middle east, and then to bring on the Islamic end times for the rest of the world.
What a charmer!
Yes.
But ... get this scenario from a Jihadi publicist's viewpoint ... the US election gets tied up in court until CHRISTMAS, and they have to figure out WHICH candidate they're going to address in the next attack! (j/k ... I do understand that it's actually the American people they're trying to manipulate ... )
Well, agree that Al Quada has their internal problems.
It's interesting that Zawahiri appears with a weapon these days but Bin Laden appears unarmed.
From what little I understand, though, Al Quada's kind of like an umbrella for alot of terrorist organizations ... kind of like Viacom's the parent company for Blockbuster and others. "Holy War, Inc" by Peter Berg gives a pretty good explanation for the "franchise" theory.
'Morning!
You know, the other thing that's annoying is that ABC will not show the Azzam the American tape in full. While I know that there is some concern about a code ... the excerpts give enough info for any terrorist cell watching.
Frankly, I feel the same way about the new Bin Laden tape.
The American people can and should be trusted with information. For that matter ... I think the footage of the charred Americans hanging from the bridge should be broadcast, as well as the beheadings.
Not only does the public need to know exactly what's going on ... but we can be trusted with it.
A novel notion, I know, for US governmental agencies .... ohwell.
"I'd go so far as to say that the best protection we've got going is the vigilance of the average American."
An alert system that functions properly would eventually become a victim of its own success, as this one has. It was inevitable that in what could become a generational war, the 3-4 year gap between the first and second strikes (9/112001 and 2004/2005) forced a sense of passivity and denial into the public. Success (meaning lack of successful attacks, but not necessarily attempts) will lead to cynicism when these alerts are issued, and it has. That has to be factored into decisions. I am for going to orange (and if the info is credible enough - - red), but not without divulging specific information (who, what when, where, why, how) as it was in August. AQ disinformation has been used to induce threat fatigue. That has to be recognized as each successive time you go to orange or even red you need an even greater amount of justification to do so. Otherwise, the alert will actually desensitize the average citizen (not the people reading this thread but the family or neighbors who think you need tin foil for even talking about these issues) and create a reduction in awareness, not an increase.
"BTW, I am probably the only person in the US that really LIKES the color coded system. I LOVE the color coded system."
Unfortunately, I think it will take another attack for it to be appreciated. The longer between attacks the more likely any alert system will start to break down.
"Tin foil caps are very fetching when you coordinate them with patent leather pumps and a tiny metallic bag! Slap on a little irridescenct pink lipstick, and top it off with the glittered blush!"
I think if I tried that makeover that someone would fit me with my own personalized tin foil cap with a sleeveless sweater and padded room to boot.
The only alert that would generate is a call by my family to the gentlemen in the white suits with the butterfly nets.
But I am confident it would work better for the ladies on the thread than for me.
Please do.
Good point re: terror fatigue ..
and ROFL!!!! Hm. We really should get "Queer Eye ... " to consult for DHS ... orange REALLY is tacky!!! ;)
Did Emerson elaborate? I'm always interested in what he has to say but I haven't caught him on any of the shows since the tape came out.
This is true but remember that New Orleans is something like 10 feet below sea level. It is only protected by a series of levees that hold out the water. Blow the levees at certain points & many would not be able to get out in time.
Interesting that you both mentioned the water. There is something I noticed in the picture at post 2852. OBL is wearing some sort of black fabric or something across the front of his chest. On that black background you can faintly see the letters "A.C." I thought Atlantic City?
Give victory to our troops as they come against the bitterness of the enemy ... let them sweep away the evil that dots the countryside, leaving only peace and stability in their wake. Constrain those who use hostages ... protect those already taken ... reveal the presence of the enemy, that he would be rendered harmless forever. May the vision of a totally free Iraq fall mightily upon the people, and may they make it so, O God ... may they make it so. In the Name of Jesus, I pray, Amen ...
Give victory to our troops as they come against the bitterness of the enemy ... let them sweep away the evil that dots the countryside, leaving only peace and stability in their wake. Constrain those who use hostages ... protect those already taken ... reveal the presence of the enemy, that he would be rendered harmless forever. May the vision of a totally free Iraq fall mightily upon the people, and may they make it so, O God ... may they make it so. In the Name of Jesus, I pray, Amen ...
Walid Farriz (Sp?) is on Fox & Friends now. He said the messages from al qaeda started weeks ago with Zarqawi's message. He said that the message this new OBL tape is trying to convey is that they want regime change in Washington DC. They want a weaker President that would eventually pull out of Afghanistan and Iraq. He did not think it was a go signal. He thinks it's designed more to influence the election. He thinks OBL is on the Pakistani side of the border.
Thank you for the beautiful Sunday morning prayer.
So I'm not alone in thinking that?!
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