I think Bush will win OH, too, but there's a somewhat plausible scenario that has him winning 273 electoral votes even without it. It's a bit reassuring.
"I think Bush will win OH, too, but there's a somewhat plausible scenario that has him winning 273 electoral votes even without it. It's a bit reassuring."
Another way of looking at all of this is that Bush only has to win 1 of OH, PA or FL. As long as Bush wins 1 of these states, there are reasonable scenarios involving IA, ME, NH, NM, NV and WI that allow Bush to still reach 270.
For example, let's say Bush loses FL and NH. Bush would be at 247 (278 - 31). Add in IA, NM and WI (22 total), he goes to 269. Add in 1 from ME and he reaches 270 which protects him from WV elector possibly not voting for him.
On the other hand, Kerry must win 2 of OH, PA or FL to win the election.
By the way, both OH and FL currently look to be with Bush, so Bush continues to be in good condition at this time. Bottom line is you'd rather be holding Bush's cards.