[remember]

U.S. job creation continued to move ahead at a steady pace with the announcement Friday that 96,000 non-farm payrolls were added to the economy. Over the past thirteen months 1.9 million new jobs have been created. The unemployment rate stands at a historically low 5.4 percent. One hundred forty million Americans are now working, a new U.S. record.

Of course, we have been setting a new record for Americans working nearly every month of every non-recession year. In any case, it's easy to be misled by the large numbers being thrown about. The following table shows the average monthly and annual gain in jobs under every President since Kennedy:

             TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT (thousands)

                                       No. of  Monthly   Annual
      Term   Mo  Year   Count  Change  Months  Average  Average
---------------------------------------------------------------
Kennedy     Jan  1961   53683    5900      48    122.9     1475
Johnson     Jan  1965   59583    9855      48    205.3     2464
Nixon       Jan  1969   69438    6182      48    128.8     1546
Nixon/Ford  Jan  1973   75620    5072      48    105.7     1268
Carter      Jan  1977   80692   10339      48    215.4     2585
Reagan 1    Jan  1981   91031    5322      48    110.9     1331
Reagan 2    Jan  1985   96353   10780      48    224.6     2695
G.H. Bush   Jan  1989  107133    2592      48     54.0      648
Clinton 1   Jan  1993  109725   11507      48    239.7     2877
Clinton 2   Jan  1997  121232   11156      48    232.4     2789
G.W. Bush   Jan  2001  132388    -821      44    -18.7     -224
            Sep  2004  131567
----------------------------------------------------------------
Total (Kennedy thru Clinton)    78705     480    164.0     1968
Total (Kennedy thru G.W. Bush)  77884     524    148.6     1784

Source: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ce,
        Series CES0000000001 

As the table shows, the average job gain from Kennedy through Clinton was about 164 thousand jobs per month and nearly 2 million jobs per year. Hence, 1.9 million jobs in 13 months is not even quite average. The 96,000 jobs created last month is well below average. Even the 3.4 million jobs that Kudlow says have been created since the end of the recession in 2001 according to the household survey is below average. Hence, it's not surprising that the growth in jobs has fallen behind the forecasts given in the last three Economic Reports of the President. The following graph shows the forecasts and the actual results according to the payroll and household surveys (the numbers can be seen at http://home.att.net/~rdavis2/employed.html):

[branch1]

I would be remiss if I didn't point out that the years ( with the exception of the clinton years ) referenced include the largest demographic this country has ever witnessed, the baby boomers. That was a huge mass of humanity. Also for the first time since WW11, women became an integral part of the work force instead of homemakers. Right now we are at 5.4% unemployment 2/10's of a point below 1996. Before we hit 4.2%, the last time unemplyment was that low was in 1962. So a number this low is an anomaly not the norm. To have economic growth at over 4%, unemployment at 5.4% and inflation hovering around 2% goes against all the conventional thinking of the economic intellectuals. I should know. This was hammered into me ad nauseum for four years in college.