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Daly Thoughts ^ | 10/12/2004 | Dales

Posted on 10/12/2004 5:45:03 AM PDT by GEC

Zogby now has the race back to a tie. It is very difficult, within a multi-day tracking poll, to come up with individual day samples that result in a spike one way and a return spike the very next day.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush; dales; kerry; specialsauce; zogby
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I just noticed this on realpolitics.com and then double-checked with Gerry to see if he had commented on his site.

Of course he had.

Special sauce, lettuce, cheese...

1 posted on 10/12/2004 5:45:04 AM PDT by GEC
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To: Dales; Coop

bump


2 posted on 10/12/2004 5:45:37 AM PDT by GEC
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To: GEC
It is very difficult, within a multi-day tracking poll, to come up with individual day samples that result in a spike one way and a return spike the very next day.

Unless...you play games with the political affiliations of those being polled.

3 posted on 10/12/2004 5:50:10 AM PDT by randita
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To: GEC
"Zogby now has the race back to a tie. It is very difficult, within a multi-day tracking poll, to come up with individual day samples that result in a spike one way and a return spike the very next day."

Do the words WISHFUL THINKING ring da bell? ;)

4 posted on 10/12/2004 5:50:35 AM PDT by G.Mason (A war mongering, UN hating, military industrial complex loving, Al Qaeda incinerating American.)
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To: GEC

http://realclearpolitics.com/


5 posted on 10/12/2004 5:50:38 AM PDT by MEG33 (John Kerry has been AWOL on issues of national security for two decades)
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To: GEC
I can`t believe how close this is. Very scary (sKerry) that there are people in this country who would vote for an idiot who has shown in the past that he sides every time with the enemies of this country and currently considers terror just a "nuisance". These people are on freggin` crack. I wonder how many 911`s they require before they would consider terror a threat.


6 posted on 10/12/2004 5:51:46 AM PDT by Imaverygooddriver ( What`s the difference between Windows XP and John Kerry? Windows XP works once in a while.)
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To: GEC

>>realpolitics.com<<
Bad URL. Will take you to RAT site.


7 posted on 10/12/2004 5:52:34 AM PDT by StudPilot (Thank God we don't get all the government we pay for)
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To: GEC

Whenever Zogby is part of a story we need a BARF ALERT


8 posted on 10/12/2004 5:52:39 AM PDT by OldFriend (It's the soldier, not the reporter who has given US freedom of the press)
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To: StudPilot

Mine doesn't.


9 posted on 10/12/2004 5:56:28 AM PDT by MEG33 (John Kerry has been AWOL on issues of national security for two decades)
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To: GEC

Up until 2000, Zogby's polls were accurate and were much quoted here. But what really put the seal on it was 9/11. Zogby is not only a Democrat, his brother is a bigwig in one of those Arab-American rights groups. He cooked the books a little for the Dems, but now he is cooking them a lot for the Arabs.

One trick you can count on with these pollsters is that they will slant the numbers before election day and then adjust them at the last minute, when people aren't looking, so they can preserve their reputation for accuracy. It's too early to be doing that now, but he must have some reason for making this adjustment.


10 posted on 10/12/2004 6:05:48 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: GEC
Here is one way you can do it using hypothetical numbers in a three day rolling poll sample...

Monday 50
Tuesday 50
Wednesday 37
Thursday 37
Friday 37
Saturday 50

On Wednesday, Freepers would freak out en mass simultaneously declaring the race over and the poll bogus. But here is what the raw data looks like to generate those results...

Monday 50
Tuesday 50
Wednesday 10
Thursday 50
Friday 50
Saturday 50

Just a single day of bad data shifts the average of what is actually a pretty steady race. Obviously that is an oversimplified example, but it shows how just a single day of bad polling data can effect a rolling average poll. That is why it is important to watch subsequent days of a major shift in a rolling poll to determine whether there is a trend developing, or if just one day is off.

11 posted on 10/12/2004 6:20:22 AM PDT by Rokke
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To: GEC

I should add that nobody knows WHAT Zogby is doing with his numbers. He has changed his methods from 2000 but hasn't revealed his new techniques.


12 posted on 10/12/2004 6:23:47 AM PDT by Rokke
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To: Rokke
You are halfway there. You just gave a fine example of spiked movement, and why when you see a spike in a tracking poll, that is not followed by another increase the next day, that it probably was just a funky one-day sample.

But here what we had was a spike in Kerry's direction followed by a spike in the other direction the very next day. Note that in your example, the spiked movement lasted three days.

13 posted on 10/12/2004 6:30:02 AM PDT by Dales
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To: Rokke

He's weighting to D39% R35%. He said so recently in an interview (sorry, link not handy).


14 posted on 10/12/2004 6:30:58 AM PDT by Dales
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To: Dales

True. In the sample I provided, the day after the 10 point data sample would have to be a 90 point data sample to reverse the trend. That is why I believe Zogby is greatly manipulating his figures beyond generating a 39/35 R/D split. From what I've read he is creating his own demographic breakdown based on results from his own polling to determine shifts in voter sentiment. That requires him to assume his demographic polling is accurate in the first place. If it isn't, his horserace poll is completely bogus (and I believe it is). While he may use a consistent 39/35 split, his likely voter model must shift like Kerry's opinion. Something certainly does. Based on that, his poll isn't even useful to determine trends.


15 posted on 10/12/2004 6:43:01 AM PDT by Rokke
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To: Rokke

I have not put much stock in Zogby's polls for quite some time.


16 posted on 10/12/2004 6:45:45 AM PDT by Dales
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To: Rokke

(Which means- I agree with you!)


17 posted on 10/12/2004 6:46:00 AM PDT by Dales
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To: Rokke

Well Bush went up 1 and kerry down 2 in a ROLLING AVERAGE POLL. Just what kind of numbers spiked Kerry up 2 day before and down 2 today? Day 3 is a draw or Kerry 1 so 400 or so respondents on DAy 2 and 3 to get Kerry +3 assuming a 1200 person 3 day tracking poll:
Day 1:

Kerry 4x46=184 respondents for Kerry
Bush 4x45=180 respondents for Bush

Day 2:
Same Margin so same numbers just doubled
Anoterh 184 for total 368 for Kerry
Another 180 for total 360 for Bush

Day 1 to get extra 2 points for Kerry:
196 for total of 564 for Kerry (47%)
168 for total of 528 for Bush (44%)

So you see what has to happen in one day to get that 3 point lead. Now drop off Day 1 and imagine what today had to look like to in terms of one day difference between the two to drop Kerry 2 and raise Bush 1. THe difference in Day 3 was 28 where the other 2 days was 4. Now to swing this thing back, we have to use Day 2 and Day 3 as starting points.

184 +196 for Kerry=380
180+168 for Bush=348

32 respondent difference.

Now for the kicker

New Day 3:
160 for Kerry = 540 (45%)
192 for Bush = 540 (45%)

A 24 respondent uptick for Bush and a 36 respondent down tick for Kerry. Really, really, really wierd. This race is all over the map or Bush still has 2 point lead. CBS was as accurate as Zogby in 2000 I believe and they have Bush up 3. Perhaps, despite Rassmusen, there is a weekend trend and Gallup's weekend only poll ran into that as did Zogby. Whatever, that swing in last two days of Zogby to give kerry 3 pts back to tie in single day is asounding.



18 posted on 10/12/2004 6:52:32 AM PDT by madison46 (Give IRAN nuke fuel?? Your nutz)
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To: madison46

Basiclly, the New Day 3 poll had a 60 respondent turn around to affect a 1200 person tracking poll the way it did. That is just weird. So to expand on what I said earlier, polling on the weekend gave us Zogby's uptick and Gallup's numbers. Add in a weekday and you get a swing back in Zogby's numbers, you get a CBS poll with Bush up 2. Imagine a weekday only polling sample with this trend? If I were pollster, I'd only do Sunday, Monday, Tuesday polling. Thursday, Friday, Saturday is too much going on.


19 posted on 10/12/2004 6:59:56 AM PDT by madison46 (Give IRAN nuke fuel?? Your nutz)
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To: Imaverygooddriver
WOW! That is SUCH a truthful pic! Gosh, if only I had MEGA BUCKS I would rent a billboard at the most busiest intersections in my hometown and splash this poster pic on it!!! This describes LURCH to a tee!!
20 posted on 10/12/2004 7:02:10 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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