The internals of these polls are based on turnout from the 2000 election rather than actually gauging the electorate as to where they are now. As a result, I sense that traditional democrats and indys are leaning to the right much more than the way they are being reflected in the polls. Garbage in, garbage out.
Dick Morris said what you are saying that Lurch's current stance on the war is going to cost him big amongst his own party.