Posted on 10/12/2004 4:21:30 AM PDT by The G Man
6% of likely voters remain undecided. Undecideds always break for the incumbent on election day. Therefore, a tie goes to the incumbent. Moreover, the election will be decided by electoral votes, not the popular vote. So things are looking good for Bush right now.
That having been said, with the US engaged in a global war on terror I think that the above conventional wisdom is out the window and that indeed undecideds will break for W on election day.
Don't forget Iowa.
Wis, + Iowa = win
(even without Ohio or NM)
It seems that weekend polls favor Kerry and week day polls favor Bush. Is that accurate? And, why would that be?
"Now we know that Zogby must have become worried about being the only outlier there and quickly re-tooled his poll"
Just what I was thinking yesterday, Zogby used bogus numbers to stop any mention of a Bush debate bounce but then he had to get back in line quickly for two reasons: one, so he wouldn't be so obviously out of whack with the other polls and two, if Kerry does well or OK Zog has room to sauce another "bounce" next week. After that he slowly gets his numbers back to whwat he actually thinks is going to happen so he doesn't look bad on election day. Zogby is creating news, not polling.
Which current stance was Morris talking about?
I haven't forgotten, but I don't know the situation in IO as well as in NM. Bush is well-organized in NM. He will definitely win there--and Kerry must have this state to win. IO still seems like a toss-up.
Tue Oct 12, 2004 07:03 AM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush bounced back into a tie with Democratic challenger John Kerry one day before their final debate, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.
Bush gained three points on the Massachusetts senator to move into a 45-45 percent dead heat in the latest three-day tracking poll of the White House campaign.
The focus of the tight race now turns to Wednesday's pivotal final debate in Tempe, Arizona, with both candidates hoping to take advantage of their last chance to court a national television audience of likely voters.
"A close race got closer," pollster John Zogby said. "I am not expecting anyone to pull away in this one -- at least not yet."
Seven percent of likely voters are still undecided three weeks before the Nov. 2 election. Only 35 percent of undecided voters give Bush a positive job rating, and 50 percent give him a negative rating.
Bush holds solid leads among married voters, military families, investors and those living in states he won in the 2000 race against Democrat Al Gore. Kerry holds leads over Bush among single voters, moderate voters, union voters and those living in states won by Gore.
Newly registered voters lean toward Kerry by 49-42 percent, while those who have already voted give a slight edge to Bush by 48-43 percent.
The poll of 1,223 likely voters was taken Saturday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.
This was the first poll conducted entirely after Friday's debate, when Bush and Kerry sniped at each other over Iraq, jobs and taxes.
Kerry continues to lead Bush among voters who view the economy, education and the war in Iraq as the top issue, while Bush holds a huge 71-25 percent lead among those who cite the war on terror as their top issue.
The poll found 49 percent of voters thought the United States was headed in the wrong direction and 45 percent thought it was headed in the right direction.
It also showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Al Gore to cost him the election in 2000, earning the support of 1.6 percent of likely voters.
The theory goes that Republican voters are more typically members of traditional families (husband, wife, 2.3 kids, etc) and on weekends are off taking kids to soccer, or working in the yard, or going to the zoo, or whatever. So it goes.
The weekend poll theory is a myth. Reputable pollsters can account for the minute shift in demographics.
What Zogby had was a bad sample.
Remember, a 3-point MOE means Bush likely could be ahead three in this poll! And Francois is stuck, again, back at 45%.
Make sure it's grape kool aid. Just like at Jonestown. And don't forget the arsenic. It adds just the right flavor.
The sad part is that there are people "in the middle" who STILL don't know what to think, and, to be honest, they are too stupid to really think about things like this, which is why they shouldn't be voters.
The guy in post#28 makes some good sense but also if the Zogby poll is a rolling average, some post debate #2 data must be being factored in now from certain demographic areas not included.
Wrong war, wrong time. Kerry is taking a defeatist position which does not sit well with conservative Dems.
Yesterday's Zogby poll had Kerry UP by 3 points over the Prez and WPost/ABC poll had the Prez up by 6 point. Now Zogby has the Prez & Botox Kerry tied at 45.
Well Bush went up 1 and kerry down 2 in a ROLLING AVERAGE POLL. Just what kind of numbers spiked Kerry up 2 day before and down 2 today? Day 3 is a draw or Kerry 1 so 400 or so respondents on DAy 2 and 3 to get Kerry +3 assuming a 1200 person 3 day tracking poll:
Day 3:
Kerry 4x46=184 respondents for Kerry (46%)
Bush 4x45=180 respondents for Bush (45%)
Day 2:
Same Margin so same numbers just doubled
Anoterh 184 for total 368 for Kerry (46%)
Another 180 for total 360 for Bush (45%)
Day 1 to get extra 2 points for Kerry:
196 for total of 564 for Kerry (47%)
168 for total of 528 for Bush (44%)
So you see what has to happen in one day to get that 3 point lead. Now drop off Day 1 and imagine what today had to look like to in terms of one day difference between the two to drop Kerry 2 and raise Bush 1. THe difference in Day 3 was 28 where the other 2 days was 4. Now to swing this thing back, we have to use Day 2 and Day 3 as starting points.
184 +196 for Kerry=380
180+168 for Bush=348
32 respondent difference.
Now for the kicker
New Day 3:
160 for Kerry = 540 (45%)
192 for Bush = 540 (45%)
A 24 respondent uptick for Bush and a 36 respondent down tick for Kerry. Really, really, really wierd. This race is all over the map or Bush still has 2 point lead. CBS was as accurate as Zogby in 2000 I believe and they have Bush up 3. Perhaps, despite Rassmusen, there is a weekend trend and Gallup's weekend only poll ran into that as did Zogby. Whatever, that swing in last two days of Zogby to give kerry 3 pts back to tie in single day is asounding.
Basiclly, the New Day 3 poll had a 60 respondent turn around to affect a 1200 person tracking poll the way it did. That is just weird. So to expand on what I said earlier, polling on the weekend gave us Zogby's uptick and Gallup's numbers. Add in a weekday and you get a swing back in Zogby's numbers, you get a CBS poll with Bush up 2. Imagine a weekday only polling sample with this trend? If I were pollster, I'd only do Sunday, Monday, Tuesday polling. Thursday, Friday, Saturday is too much going on.
You are right on the money. IMHO, no poll, positive or negative for GW Bush is reflective of what will happen on election day. For instance, it now appears that somewhere between 12% and 15% of Black voters will vote for President Bush. If that happens this race is over. My gut feel is that somewhere between !5% and 20% of Black voters will choose President Bush. I again predict a landslide win for GW Bush. Bush=57%, Kerry=40%, Nader=3%. Why? Have you noticed how many rank and file Democrat office holders are treating John Kerry like he is radioactive. No Hillary, No Bill, No Teddy, No Daschle, No Lieberman, No Schumer, No Boxer, No Pelosi, etc. No one running for office wants to be seen with him. Only the scum like Harkin and Leahy! Mr. Kerry is toast IMHO!!!
The poll of 1,223 likely voters was taken Saturday through Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.
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