Most of the states they assume are going to vote the way they did in 2000. They haven't done too many state polls, but the only ones that went for Kerry are Michigan by 6 and Washington by 8.
They have Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida all going for Bush, but in OH and PA the leads are 2-3 points. The winner of the election will probably pick up at least 2 of these 3 states.
They do have Florida by 8, which would be great in real life, especially if Michael Moore and friends are all down there expecting swinging chads and voter disenfranchisement.
They have Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida all going for Bush, but in OH and PA the leads are 2-3 points. The winner of the election will probably pick up at least 2 of these 3 states."
I agree. PA will probably go for Kerry. It is possible, however, for Bush to not win OH and still win the EC. If Bush wins FL and OH it is over for Kerry.