I don't think so. If it's a blowout, I think it'll be viewed as an aberration due to his pontificating political style, not as a failure of conservative candidates. And I think he'll do much better than the polls in the mid 20s. Though he may cost Republican's some votes, I just don't think that many top line Republican voters will split their tickets.
In the mid-eighties I had many black acquaintances and we would talk politics. They were against abortion,homosexual activities,easy divorce laws and easy access to aid for single mothers. When I would ask them why they weren't supporting the Republican candidate for governor since he held the same positions as I did,they were silent. I knew they liked me too much and were polite enough not to want to insult me to say that they couldn't trust me because I was white as was the condidate,but I knew that was it in a nutshell.
I hope and pray that those blacks,like my acquaintances, will hear the compelling ring of truth stated by one of their own and cross the party line. It would serve all us well,especially the Republican Party.