Zogby today has Kerry up by 3%, versus Rasmussen and the Wash Post which have Bush up by 4 and 5%, respectively.
I suspect we need to issue a 'Zogby Special Falafel' alert. ('Special Sauce' doesn't seem to cut it for an Islamofascistfile like Zogby anymore).
Rasmussen says the difference between Zogby's results and his and the Washington Post/ABC tracker is he and WPABC are claiming about 20% of Dems will vote Bush. He says southern conservatives who call themselves Dem will vote Bush.
Zogby has 88% Dem support for Kerry. That is the supposed difference. Now Zogby's formula might exclude Dems from the South. That is possible. His sampling is very intentionally not random. He tries to sample what he decides is representative rather than random.
Rasmussen isn't random either, since he is forcing the partisan mix to be 2000 VNS exit poll data.
No one knows who is correct. Zogby was right in 1996 and slighly off in 2000. Rasmussen was way off in 2000 and closer in 2002. Both have changed their methodologies.
One wonders who makes the most money. Gallup or Zogby?