[Logic n' Reason]

I thought both PA and MI were much closer than the odds makers predict??

[drangundsturm]

I thought both PA and MI were much closer than the odds makers predict?? The market makers are free to take into account any information they feel is relavant, including polls, past election results, the possibility of fraud, personal contacts, what the campaigns are spending in each state on advertising, etc. Their opinions usually do not flip up and down dramatically with every little blip in the polls, so polls are not all-important.

It's especially instructive to look at the probabilities they are setting in states that the pundits are saying are too close to call. In some cases, including the ones you point out and some others that surprise me too, the markets have some reason to believe it's not all that close after all.