2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/11/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, October 11, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Martins kid]

This was before Friday's debate?

[Remember_Salamis]

"BUSH.ELECTORALVOTES" has an extremely low volume, making it inaccurate.

[drangundsturm]

Yes, you have a point there, that market is not very liquid. But part of that is because the electoral vote count has barely moved in weeks, it's been trapped in a narrow range from about 280 to 300.

[drangundsturm]

I thought both PA and MI were much closer than the odds makers predict?? The market makers are free to take into account any information they feel is relavant, including polls, past election results, the possibility of fraud, personal contacts, what the campaigns are spending in each state on advertising, etc. Their opinions usually do not flip up and down dramatically with every little blip in the polls, so polls are not all-important.

It's especially instructive to look at the probabilities they are setting in states that the pundits are saying are too close to call. In some cases, including the ones you point out and some others that surprise me too, the markets have some reason to believe it's not all that close after all.

[Momaw Nadon]

Thanks jdege!