I bet you these state polls do not even reflect the Cheney debate. State polls lag several days behind the national polls. Anyway, it is my belief that with the President cleaning Kerry's clock on the internal poll issues of Terrorism, Iraq, national security and leadership, I just don't see how Kerry wins.
Turnout. Why was 2000 even close?
There are many very strange things going on with this election, and the polling companies models aren't reliable.
Take, for example, the fact that many polls which query both likely and registered voters have shown that Bush has more favor among registed voters than among the likely voter sub-group. I don't believe I had ever seen registered voters lean more Republican than likely voters - ever! Does this mean that there is a large pool of people that have never voted before intending to vote for Bush? Does it mean that there are a lot of weak bush supporters that probably won't vote?
We won't know what it means until after the election.