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To: Clintonfatigued

There was no allegation you were. We were just pointing out ARG's bias. They have been consistently 3-5 points off the rest of the pollster's numbers, favoring Democrats.

Exactly how they are doing it, I can't figure out, because they have the right DRI numbers from 2000 and their gender numbers follow the 2000 exit polling data. Other pollsters are using the same 2000 data and getting entirely different results.


36 posted on 10/10/2004 11:56:22 AM PDT by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY

I think it's the way in which they identify likely voters (which is propreitary)....

For instance, Gallup had President Bush's numbers way higher than all other pollsters back in late July and August because supposedly they way they identify likely voters is favorable to Republicans. ARG is just the opposite.

Kind of the same thing how some pollsters push leaners differently, and how that really affects their numbers (i.e. Rasmussen and Zogby getting different results)


39 posted on 10/10/2004 11:58:43 AM PDT by okstate (I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message... before I decided against it.)
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To: GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
Exactly how they are doing it, I can't figure out, because they have the right DRI numbers from 2000 and their gender numbers follow the 2000 exit polling data. Other pollsters are using the same 2000 data and getting entirely different results.

I would suspect targeted polling. What is their area distribution like? Are they targeting big cities and small towns within the margin of voter turnout? What about inner city vs. suburbs? Or perhaps they're just making them up as they go. There is more than one way to skin a cat.
57 posted on 10/10/2004 12:36:22 PM PDT by counterpunch (The CouNTeRPuNcH Collection - www.counterpunch.us)
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