Posted on 10/08/2004 9:03:15 AM PDT by Owen
He showed an eroding W lead in the last week but as of yesterday and now today, that erosion is gone.
The only thing I really pay attention to on Ras is his JA number. That has been over 51% since July, as high as 55%. No president has ever lost with that kind of JA rating. Ever.
No president has ever gotten LESS than his JA number relative to the popular vote (in a 2 man race). The average is JA + 1.9% = popular vote %
Voter fraud will account for at least two points for Kerry and turnout for Kerry will be really high, so Bush has to be up by at least 4 or 5.
Tonight's his last chance to put away this twit. If he fails, it will be a 2000 repeat.
What is the JA today?
Rasmussen also has Bush electoral count at 240 which is the highest it's been.
52%
what about the third debate? that could change some votes as well
53%
After tonight's debate (which Bush will win, count on it) I suspect the numbers will be in the range of Bush 54%, Kerry 45%.
Guys, we just have to keep on an even emotional equilibrium. When Freepers & Dittoheads start panicking, its reverberations are felt throughout the country. We must keep our positive, cocky, devil-may-care swagger. That is the attitude that generates the Big Mo.
People are starting to give Bush the benefit of the doubt as to last week's nightmare--thing's are stabilizing, but another bad performance will blow this thing open.
Glad Bush's bleeding has stopped. Tonight's the night for him to draw some blood of his own and let Kerry hemorrhage for a little while.
"the bleeding stops"?
There is no bleeding here. Our only concern in this election is voter fraud. And it should be a real concern. But unless they voter fraud the heck out of this thing, W wins big.
I agree. Nothing makes the DUmmies happier than to see us down. I've even went so far as to say if the unimaginable happens, we don't need to give them ammunition to make fun of us with. I wish Free Republic had a place where the DUmmies couldn't get in but I know thats immpossible. Just dreaming.
Wow...that's a great stat, I missed that one..
what is the "low" on that average?
>
After tonight's debate (which Bush will win, count on it) I suspect the numbers will be in the range of Bush 54%, Kerry 45%.
>
To repeat, Rasmussen's absolute numbers are not necessarily valid. Bush could be up 10 pts or down 10 pts. There is no way to know because no one knows what the turnout will be. What Rasmussen does do better than the rest is show trend and he shows a reversal of erosion. Bush's support has grown the last few days, almost certainly from undecideds.
Bush need not hit any home runs or take any risks at all tonight. He need only improve. It's always about trends and expectations. Not being spectacular.
true, but a unarguable draw in this debate, then a bush womping in the third debate wouldn't be bad
That post must have been for someone else.
that strikes me as a bit to confident. I would be leaning more towards Bush-52, Kerry-45
It was for everybody, just referencing the phrase inserted with the title of this article. Sorry for any misunderstanding.
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