What about the theory that Badnarik will steal some anti-war Democrats?
Some have suggested that this campaign is actually helping Bush, since it opposes him on the big issues, like Iraq...
Actually, my guess is that most of the Libertarian vote comes from people who vote 3rd party regardless of what the 3rd party is. That's the statistic that's coming out about Nader. When Nader is taken off of the polls, Bush actually does better. It's because Nader is simply the protest vote. Badnarik serves the same role.